Pharmaceutical results preview for Q3FY12: Emkay

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Emkay Global Financial Services has come with its December quarterly earning estimates for pharmaceutical sector. According to the research firm the sector is expected to report a growth of 18% YoY (5% QoQ) in revenues partly driven by Rupee depreciation which is likely to be 4-5% of the overall growth.

Divi's Lab (+32%), Sun Pharma (+27%), Ipca Labs (+28%), Glenmark Pharma (+27%), Dr. Reddys (+23%) and Ranbaxy (+17%) will be outperformers. The laggards will be Uncihem Labs (+6%), Aurobindo (+6%) & GSK (+11%).

OPM for the Emkay Pharma Universe is expected to 24% compared to 22% in Q2FY12 and 21% in Q3FY11. Expansion in EBIDTA margins will 200-250bps on account of Rupee depreciation and 100-150bps due to Para-IVs.

EBITDA margin expansion will be led by Ranbaxy Labs (+1000bps YoY & +1389bps QoQ), Ipca Labs (+678bps YoY & +108bps QoQ), Sun Pharma (+1000bps YoY & -280bps QoQ) and Dr. Reddys (+617bps YoY & 504bps QoQ).

PAT of Pharma universe is likely to grow by 51% YoY (25% QoQ) compared to 4% YoY growth in Q2FY12 driven by Rupee depreciation and Para-IVs

Growth in APAT will be on account of 69% growth in Sun Pharma, 77% growth in Dr. Reddys (led by Zyprexa), 420% growth in Ranbaxy (led by Lipitor) and 35% growth in Divi's Lab.

In the generics space -Ipca Labs and Glenmark Pharma are our preferred bet.

In the CRAMS space -Divi's and Jubilant Life are our preferred bet.

Company	Net Sales (Rs mn)			APAT (Rs mn)
	Q3FY12	Q2FY12	Q3FY11	Q3FY12	Q2FY12	Q3FY11
Aurobindo Pharma	12651	10753	11922	627	291	1847
Cadila Healthcare	13265	12364	11668	1793	1767	1620
Cipla	17877	17780	15537	2840	2950	2327
Dishman Pharma	2879	2692	2379	114	125	17
Divi's Lab	4121	3661	3132	1324	1061	984
Dr. Reddy's Lab	23416	22678	18985	4047	3118	2291
GSK Pharma	5539	6146	5007	1255	1460	1223
Glenmark Pharma	9657	10554	7585	1428	1253	947
Ipca Lab	5921	6180	4634	1016	1051	553
Jubilant Life	10225	10501	8690	999	1179	424
Lupin	17602	16745	15102	1985	2259	2240
Ranbaxy Labs	24850	20955	21161	5813	1488	1119
Sun Pharma	20657	18946	16011	6489	5257	3502
Torrent Pharma	6449	6577	5548	845	793	769
Unichem Labs	2085	1988	1971	213	191	256

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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