Jul 12, 2012, 08.23 AM IST

Auto Q1 sales growth seen at 24% YoY: Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services has come out with its June quarterly earning estimates for automobiles sector. The research firm expects adjusted EBIDTA margins to decline by 90bps YoY and 70bps QoQ to 11.7%.

Source: Moneycontrol.com
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Emkay Global Financial Services has come out with its June quarterly earning estimates for automobiles sector. The research firm expects adjusted EBIDTA margins to decline by 90bps YoY and 70bps QoQ to 11.7%.


  • We expect our automobile universe to report 24% YoY growth (-11% QoQ) in sales to Rs 801 bn driven by volumes and pricing action. Excl. TML subs, sales growth to moderate to 10% YoY (-15% QoQ) to Rs 476bn
  • Adjusted EBIDTA at Rs 93.6 bn is expected to grow only 15% YoY due to higher input costs. Sequentially, EBIDTA is expected to decline 16% due to lower operating leverage benefits, adverse currency and higher discounts. Excl. TML subs, EBITDA is likely to decline 21% QoQ (-3% YoY) to Rs 47 bn
  • Adjusted EBIDTA margins to decline by 90bps YoY and 70bps QoQ to 11.7%. Excluding TML subs, margin decline to increase to 9.9% (-145 bps YoY/-75 bps QoQ). Sequential decline is largely expected across most companies. AL (330 bps), BJAUT (26 bps) Eicher (121 bps), MM (60 bps) and MSIL (40 bps) to report decline QoQ. HMCL and TVSL to show marginal improvement in margins QoQ
  • APAT to increase 13% YoY (decline 44% QoQ) to Rs 54 bn. Ex TML subs, APAT to decline 13% YoY and 30% QoQ to Rs 26.3 bn. Highest sequential decline is expected in AL (73%), TTMT (55%) and MSIL (39%) driven by weak demand, lower operating leverage and adverse currency. Only improvement is seen in HMCL (10% QoQ)
  • Key things to focus will be impact of shift in product mix, discount levels, currency swings and hedges
  • We maintain our preference for 2 wheelers. We have BUY rating on BJAUT and ACCUMULATE rating on TTMT and AL. We maintain HOLD on TVSL, MM, EIM and REDUCE on MSIL and HMCL
Company  Net Sales (Rs mn) APAT (Rs mn)
Q1FY13 Q4FY12 Q1FY12 Q1FY13 Q4FY12 Q1FY12
Ashok Leyland 30003 43110 24955 758 2781 768
Bajaj Auto 48103 46514 47773 7320 7673 7111
Eicher Motors 14951 16950 12984 856 1096 763
Hero Motocorp 64265 60349 56833 6637 6036 5579
Mah & Mah 89368 93872 67335 5514 7663 6049
Maruti Suzuki 105656 117270 85293 3905 6398 5492
Tata Motors 432697 509079 335725 28899 64053 21705
TVS Motor 15896 16272 17460 424 572 588
Apollo Tyres 31731 32314 28224 1334 1580 775
CEBBCO 1489 1364 822 144 131 69
Motherson Sumi 63268 64252 23002 764 984 541


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