Jan auto sales: Healthy start for 2012 says KRChoksey

Published on Fri, Feb 03, 2012 at 12:24 |  Source : Moneycontrol.com

Updated at Fri, Feb 03, 2012 at 13:18  

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Jan auto sales: Healthy start for 2012 says KRChoksey

KRChoksey has come out with its report on auto sales number. The research firm expects 2-wheeler volumes to grow at healthy rate of 10-12% going ahead.

Auto majors started the year on healthy note with robust set of numbers above market expectations, indicating no major signs of slowdown for the industry. Hero Motocorp reported strong volumes for the month in the 2-wheeler space whereas Maruti saw recovery in volumes for the month.

2-W & 3-W Segment: The two wheeler segment reported volume growth of 9.1% y-o-y largely driven by Hero Motocorp, followed by Bajaj Auto and TVS motors. Hero Motocorp continued with its strong performance reporting 12% y-o-y growth in 2-wheeler volumes, maintaining the 5 lac vehicles per month run rate, indicating no signs of slowdown in rural market. Bajaj Auto clocked 7% y-o-y growth in 2-wheeler space and moderate export growth of 13% y-o-y. TVS Motors reported dismal performance with 6% y-o-y growth in 2 wheeler sales on the back of 20% y-o-y growth in the Mopeds and flattish performance for the Scooter & Motorcycle segment. In the three wheeler segment Bajaj Auto maintained double digit growth of 13% y-o-y unable to meet their target of 45000 vehicles per month & TVS motors disappointed with a decline of 30% y-o-y.

Four Wheeler & CV Segment: Domestic passenger vehicle demand showed some sign of improvement with 5.3% y-o-y and 24% m-o-m growth driven by recovery in Maruti volumes(up by 30% m-o-m) followed by Tata Motors(passenger car volumes up by 21% m-o-m,10% y-o-y) and M&M(16% y-o-y,3.3% m-o-m). Maruti's domestic volumes were largely driven by Mini & compact segment (volumes up by 5% y-o-y, 31% m-o-m). Tata Motors reported strong growth in Domestic passenger car sales led by 15% y-o-y growth in Nano sales, 9% y-o-y growth in the Indica segment (driven by New Indica vista dispatches) and 10% y-o-y growth in Indigo. The domestic CV space continued healthy run with Tata motors reporting growth of 13.5% y-o-y(15% y-o-y growth in LCV & 11% y-o-y rise in M&HCV) and Ashok Leyland clocking growth of 19.3% y-o-y(excl dost volumes of 1100 units).

Valuation: We expect 2-wheeler volumes to grow at healthy rate of 10-12% going ahead and maintain our HOLD recommendation for Hero Motocorp & Bajaj Auto. We recommend REDUCE on MSIL & Tata Motors on the back of recent run up in the stock price.

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