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Apr 12, 2012, 03.07 PM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Bharti's Q4 PAT seen up 19% at Rs 1202 cr: MOST

Motilal Oswal has come out with its earnings estimates on Bharti Airtel for March quarter FY12. According to the research firm, the company's Q4FY12 sales are likely to go up by 2.1% at Rs 18860 crore, Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) basis.

Motilal Oswal has come out with its earnings estimates on Bharti Airtel for March quarter FY12. According to the research firm, the company's Q4FY12 sales are likely to go up by 2.1% at Rs 18860 crore, Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) basis.

The company's net profit is seen up 18.9% at Rs 1202.7 crore, QoQ.

Motilal Oswal's estimates on Bharti Airtel Q4 results:

We expect consolidated revenue to grow 16% YoY and 2% QoQ to INR189b. Revenue growth would be driven by higher traffic growth (3% QoQ) in the domestic business. We expect India and South Asia revenue to grow 12% YoY and 3% QoQ to INR136b, while Africa business revenue would remain flat QoQ at USD1.06b.

Consolidated EBITDA margin is likely to expand 60bp QoQ to 32.8% primarily due to lower branding expenses v/s higher base of 3QFY12. EBITDA margin in the Africa business (including corporate expenses) would remain flat QoQ at 26.7%. India and South Asia EBITDA margin is likely to increase by 75bp to 35.1%.

India and South Asia mobile revenue would grow 11% YoY and 3% QoQ to INR105b. Mobile traffic is likely to grow 3% QoQ (v/s 1% growth in 3QFY12). We expect mobile ARPU to decline 2% YoY but grow 1% QoQ to INR189. We estimate EBITDA margin for the mobile business at 33.8%, flat QoQ.

4QFY12 would be relatively challenging for the Africa business, given: (1) seasonal weakness, (2) disruptions in Nigeria in the early part of the quarter, and (3) 1-1.5% depreciation in the African currency basket v/s USD. We estimate an ARPU of USD6.8 and subscriber base of 52m.

Consolidated net profit is likely to decline 14% YoY but grow 19% QoQ to INR12b. PAT for India and South Asia would decline 21% YoY but grow 13% QoQ to INR14.4b.

We assume forex loss of INR1b during the quarter due to adverse movement of African/Sri Lankan currencies.

Bharti trades at an EV/EBITDA (proportionate) of 8.2x FY12E and 6.5x FY13E. Maintain Buy.

Key things to watch: QoQ mobile traffic growth in India business (we expect 3% growth), forex loss (we expect INR1b), Africa business financials (we expect flat revenue/EBITDA QoQ in USD terms).

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