Automobiles sector results preview for Q3FY12: PINC

Published on Mon, Jan 09, 2012 at 14:18 |  Source : Moneycontrol.com

Updated at Tue, Jan 10, 2012 at 11:03  

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Automobiles sector results preview for Q3FY12: PINC

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PINC Research has come with its December quarterly earning estimates for automobiles sector.

PINC Research earning estimates:

  • Hero MotoCorp posted its highest ever quarterly volumes (up 2.9% QoQ) even as competitors Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor showed fatigue with volumes declining 7.6% and 12.3% QoQ respectively.
  • The price hikes undertaken by manufacturers would enable them to maintain margins on a QoQ basis. Bajaj Auto's profitability is expected to get a 30bps QoQ boost due to the appreciating dollar.
  • Maruti Suzuki had another dreadful quarter as labour unrest during Oct'11 hampered production leading to a 28% YoY decline in volumes. Despite a richer product mix, we expect margins to be impacted by the Yen appreciation vis-vis INR. Profits expected to half to Rs 2.7 billion.
  • Ashok Leyland margins are expected to contract 70bps QoQ as the product mix has been diluted with the launch of the SCV 'Dost'. Profit is expected to decline 27% YoY to Rs1.1bn.
  • M&M automotive and tractor volumes on a YoY basis grew 31.3% and 24% respectively. We expect QoQ margin expansion owing to price hikes undertaken and higher operating leverage.
  • Sona Koyo is expected to report a modest 5% growth in topline as volume decline at principal client Maruti Suzuki is compensated by other OEMs. Margins expected to contract 30bps QoQ due to the impact of Yen appreciation.
  • Apollo Tyres consolidated profit is expected to grow 78.1% QoQ as its European subsidiary which specializes in winter tyres has its peak season.

Company Revenue PAT Reco
Rs mn QoQ% YoY% Rs mn QoQ% YoY%
Bajaj Auto 49,414 -6.2 18.3 7,815 -1.2 17.2 BUY
Hero Motocorp 60,604 4 17.4 6,190 2.6 27.7 ACCU.
TVS Motor 17,707 -11.1 7.5 549 -28.2 -1.5 BUY
Ashok Leyland 28,325 -8.5 27.2 1,120 -27.3 158.2 BUY
M&M 83,001 12.8 35.6 6,584 -10.7 6.7 BUY
Maruti Suzuki 76,314 -2.6 -19.6 2,717 13 -51.9 ACCU.
Apollo Tyres 30,657 6.8 29.4 1,392 78.1 15.2 ACCU.
Sona Koyo 2,871 5.4 5.2 78 14.7 -10.9 BUY

 

 

 

 

 

* ACCU. = Accumulate

 

 

 

 

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