Volume decline continues in fertiliser sector: P Lilladher

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Volume decline continues in fertiliser sector: P Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher has come out with its report on Indian agri products. The research firm expects the demand of non-urea fertiliser to see further contraction (may be sharper than Apr-Nov) in the short term.

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Prabhudas Lilladher has come out with its report on Indian agri products. The research firm expects the demand of non-urea fertiliser to see further contraction (may be sharper than Apr-Nov) in the short term.

In India, fertilizer sales volume has dropped by 3% YoY on account of 10.5% YoY decline in non-urea fertilizers volume during Apr-Nov 2011. Non-urea (manufactured) fertilizers de-grew by 3.5% YoY, while, imported/traded non-urea fertilizers dropped by 17.5% YoY during the same period. On the other hand, urea sales volume, which has partially off-set the decline of non-urea fertilisers, grew by 5.8% YoY during Apr- Nov 2011 v/s 7.1% during FY11.

Spread between urea/non - urea fertiliser prices impacted manufactured nonurea volume:
Non-urea fertilizers have been brought under Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) since April 2010 and since then their prices have gone up 2x across the category. On the other hand, urea prices have gone up by a mere 10% to Rs 5,310/MT from Rs4,830/MT, since it is still being controlled by the government. The widening spread between urea and non-urea fertilizer prices has encouraged farmers to switch to urea, thereby, adversely affecting non-urea fertilizers (including DAP, MOP, SSP and other complex) consumption.

Tussle between Indian importers v/s Global suppliers affected traded volumes:
Differentiation between Indian potash importers and global suppliers of MOP over pricing of imports for FY12 continued till mid-August 2011. Post that, Tata Chemicals (TCL) & Coromandel International (CRIN) signed contracts with Canpotex to procure MOP at US$530/MT. Shipments will get delivered during H2FY12. Government's benchmark import parity price (IPP) to compute subsidy on potash was based on US$420/MT for FY12. So, Indian companies were unwilling to sign contracts above US$500/MT. Consequently, the delay in signing potash contracts negatively impacted import volumes. Further, higher global DAP prices v/s government benchmark has also impacted the DAP imports.

Scenario improved marginally in Oct - Nov:
Overall fertiliser volumes de-grew by merely 1% YoY. Imported/traded volume has shown growth of 12.1% YoY. It was primarily due to MOP shipments which have arrived post contacts with global suppliers in August 2011. Manufactured non-urea volumes have declined by 1.5% YoY, whereas urea volume dipped by 7.0% YoY.

Demand of non - urea fertiliser is likely to witness further contraction in the short term:
Spread between urea and non-urea fertilisers has gone up substantially during Q2FY12 because non-urea players have taken price hike by 25-30% to cope up with higher raw material cost and impact of rupee depreciation. Hence, major impact on demand is likely to be witnessed in H2FY12. Our interactions with some of the distributors/farmers suggest that application of non - urea fertilisers will come down during the ongoing crop season. Hence, we expect the demand of non - urea fertiliser to see further contraction (may be sharper than Apr - Nov) in the short term," says Prabhudas Lilladher research report.

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To read the full report click on the attachment