Nirmal Bang has come out with its rollover report on Auto, Media and IT Sector.
• With apprehension regarding global economic stability and rising uncertainty in Indian political system, only 61.19% positions were carried over in Nifty Futures, way-lower than its 3-month average of 69.8%. Trading in a broader range of 5200-4700, the Nifty Futures closed gaining 3.76% in the September expiry. • Market-wide Rollovers stood at 83.18% marginally lower compared to its previous expiry and its 3-month average. • FIIs were the net sellers for the second consecutive month to the tune of 1868cr (Sept expiry) in cash whereas domestic institution have bought to the tune of 1400cr. If we go back to the previous expiry FIIs had sold over 12600cr in cash and DII were net buyers. Hence, with a gradual fall in the pace of pulling out money by the FII and continuous buying by domestic institutions indicates limited downside potential for the Indian Markets. One can expect these funds to soon come back to India with improvement in global economic Outlook. • Bank Nifty and CNX IT saw healthy rollovers at a comparative lower cost of 0.20% and -0.15% respectively • Looking at the Nifty Future and PCR OI chart one can expect the spread to inversely increase in the days to come. • Amongst the sectors Autos, Media and IT witnessed positive rollovers whereas FMCG, Cement and Capital goods witnessed negative rollovers.
Auto Sector • Healthy Rollovers were seen in the Auto Sector and were mainly skewed towards the long-side. Good rollovers were seen in stocks such as Apollo Tyre , MRF, Maruti whereas Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland witnessed more of short rolls. • Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland which were nearly up 12% and 7.2% during the last expiry rolled at a cost of -0.90% and -0.97%; way negative compared to their 3-month average indicating towards a negative bias for the stock. • Comparatively, Apollo Tyre and Maruti saw healthy rollovers skewed towards positive side on a short term basis. The stocks were marginally up by 1.8% and 0.2% in the last expiry. • Other stocks in the sector witnessing long rolls were Exide Ind and Bharat Forg which were nearly up 2% each on the day of expiry.
Media Sector • Media is one of the most highlighted and the upcoming sector especially Sun TV which has been in focus in the recent days. • Sun TV has come down nearly 21.4% in the month of September. It has witnessed healthy rollovers of 77.26% way above its 3-month average of 58.5. This clearly indicates the negative trend to continue in the stock as majority of the bets were placed on the short side. • DCHL was the outperformer in the media sector gaining over 8% in the month of September. 97.28% of the positions were carried over along with a positive cost of 0.71%. • Other stocks in the sector such as Dish TV and Zeel rolled at a cost of 0.71% and 0.34% way positive as compared to their respective 3- month average.
IT Sector • Being most sensitive to exchange rate, IT sector was in focus in the month of September. Being the exporters of software, the IT companies benefited from the depreciation of Rupee which will be indirectly be reported in the quarterly numbers scheduled in the month of October. • Heavy weights such as TCS , Wipro and INFY have outperformed the market gaining 12%. 6.8% and 15% in the September expiry. • Moserbaer is the only stock in the sector showing a clear negative trend. It is rolled over at a discount of 1.79% compared to 3-month average discount of 0.07 • Stocks in the sector witnessing long rolls were TCS, FT, Polaris and 31infotech whereas short rolls were seen in HCL Tech and Hexaware.
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