Remain positive on market: Angel Broking

On Friday, our benchmark indices traded with negative bias throughout the day to close with a loss of more than a percent. This was primarily on the back of negative sentiment in global markets. Realty was the most beaten down sector, followed by Metal and Healthcare counters. Unfortunately not even a single sector closed in green territory. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters (A=979 D=1939) (Source www.bseindia.com).

Trading strategy:
The price movement during the week was mainly driven by few domestic as well as global events. Our benchmark indices tested both the upper as well as the lower band of the trading range 19613 / 5965 19193 / 5839 mentioned in our previous report. Similar to last week, indices have closed precisely at the strong support of ’20 Day EMA’. However, this time the price structure along with few technical tools, such as the daily momentum oscillators, ‘3 & 8 EMA’ and the ADX (9), indicate a relatively higher probability of a short term correction in the market. The said possibility will be confirmed only if indices sustain below last week’s low of 19149 / 5823. In this scenario, we may witness a downward corrective move towards 19100 18930 / 5806 5755. These levels are the 38.20% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of the rise from 18255 / 5548 (low on November 20, 2012) to 19612 / 5965 (high on December 11, 2012), respectively. On the flipside, last week’s high of 19612 / 5965 would act as a strong resistance in the coming trading sessions.

A move beyond this level would result in an extended rally towards 20050 20218 / 6000 6070 levels. Considering the overall weekly chart structure we continue to remain positive on the market and any corrective move towards 19000 18900 / 5800 5750 levels should be used by positional traders as a buying opportunity.

Generally, it is observed that during the last week of the December month, the volume activity is very low and hence, market’s trading range becomes narrower towards the year end. However any adverse developments in the US, with regards to the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ may result in enhanced volatility in the market.

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