Monsoon scenario improves;Steady progress for Kharif sowing

The monsoon has progressed quite well over the last one week with total rainfall of 38.1 mm compared to the normal rainfall of 40.1 mm. Both Central and South Peninsular India had excess rainfall over the last week and East & North East had slightly lesser rainfall than normal. The rainfall is still deficient over the Northwest region of the country. 

The near to normal rainfall over the last one week has improved the monsoon scenario and overall the rainfall deficiency in the monsoon season has come down to 26% as on June 20th compared to 50% as on June 13th. Our Indian Metrological Department has forecasted normal rains over several regions in India including peninsular region, North East and Western coast over the next one week. However, it has predicted that monsoon might not advance further for the next 4-5 days which might result in further deficiency of rainfall in the central and northwest region of India.

Meanwhile rice has been sown in 1.87 million hectares in the kharif season slightly less than the 1.909 million hectares during the same period in 2011. The progress has been good in sugarcane as it is already sown in 5.152 million hectares compared to 5.094 million hectares in 2011. However, the kharif sowing is lagging behind in cotton, which is at 2.10 million hectares compared to 2.62 million hectares and in oilseeds at 0.313 million hectares compared to 0.743 million hectares during the same period previous year.

IMD has forecasted that the monsoons will be normal this year at 96% of the long term average. It has slightly revised down this figure from the earlier prediction of 99%, which is not a cause for worry. With the monsoon scenario improving and the kharif sowing progressing steadily one can hope to have a good kharif crop this season.

India exports 0.3 million tonne sugar; global prices fall: Indian mills exported 3,01,000 tonne sugar as of June 15 after the government lifted quantitative restrictions in early May, aiding a fall in global prices. Until June 15, mills received permits to export 4,28,000 tonne, senior industry executives said on Thursday. Unrestricted exports by India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer and the biggest consumer, have further pressured the global market, already awash with supplies from Brazil and Thailand. US raw sugar futures crashed 27% in 2011, the first annual fall in four years, on higher output in Asia and Europe. Prices fell 8.53% in May and have shed around 10% this year after recovering from a more substantial fall until the first week of this month, anticipating a revival in demand from West Asia and Bangladesh ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan beginning July.