USDINR may test support of 53.06-53: Karvy

On Thursday, The domestic fiscal deficit significantly turned to surplus from 45006 billion rupee to -8227 billion rupee due to improved trade deficit and change in major policies. This has supported to ended on a higher note of 53.225, up by 0.15%. The Asian equities ended on weaker and tracked by domestic indices, Sensex fell by 0.55% to 19894.98 and Nifty moved down by 0.35% to close at 6034.75.  European stock markets ended on lower note, down by 0.54% while shared currency euro close on slightly positive note, up by 0.09% to $1.3579 due to Germany CPI index improved to 1.0%.  US stock markets fell by 0.15% due to unexpected declined corporate earning and increased jobless claim data. Dollar index moved down by 0.09% to close at 79.207. 

Outlook:

Last night US stock markets fell due to unexpected decline in corporate earning and increased jobless claim data eventually brought market in the negative direction. This has followed by Asian equities in today morning to trade on a weak note. Euro currency is on positive note at $1.3604, up by 0.18% and it may support positive opening of rupee. The SGX Nifty future is trading down by 5.50 points. As the day proceeds, Germany will release PMI manufacturing data which is expected to increase and it may support shared currency euro gains while US will release nonfarm payroll, Michigan confidence and ISM manufacturing data which is expected to increase and may support USD. Overall we expect rupee to open on a slightly weak tracking global equities and thereafter we may witnesses some gains coming in amid of government plan to raise $468 million by selling 10% stakes of OIL to reduce budget deficit and boost economy.

USDINR Spot:
 
After making two and half months low of 53.06 USDINR recouped sharply and finally settled at 53.21 forming Doji candle stick pattern. Momentum indicator RSI-14 is hovering at 0.32. Going through the chart nom major supports is witnessing around 53.08 level of 61.8% Fibonacci retreatment break of this next psychological support is seen at 53.00 and 57.80 levels of long term trendline. For today we anticipate USDINR to retest the support of 53.06-53.00 levels and could see re-bounce in the later sessions. Any convincing break below 53.00 may drag up to 52.80 levels.

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