ICICI Direct's report on Currency
Government bond yield recorded their biggest monthly fall in over seven years in November, as the Centre’s demonetisation move flushed the banking system with liquidity and raised hopes of an interest rate cut The benchmark 6.97% bond maturing in 2026 ended at | 105.24 against| 104.69 the previous day The benchmark 6.97% 2026 bond yield fell to 6.25% from 6.32% in the previous day.
The rupee rose for a second straight day to a one-week high against the dollar, as domestic equities continued their gains, easing concerns about foreign fund outflows The US$ index rallied yesterday gaining over 0.55% due to strength against Japanese Yen and euro. The JPY continued to weaken on rising monetary divergence and subsiding improved risk sentiment. The euro also fell against the US$ as the ECB president raised concerns on falling productivity, which could hurt the overall output of the euro area.
US$/INR derivatives strategy: Buy December Contract
In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar-rupee December contract on the NSE ended at 68.56. The December contract open interest rose 4.74% from the previous day.
January contract open interest rose 9.62% from the previous day.
We expect the US$ to gain support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the dollar to go long on the US$INR pair.
|US$INR December futures contract (NSE)
||View: Bullish on US$INR
|Buy US$INR in the range of 68.45 - 68.55
||Market Lot: US$1000
|Target: 68.80 / 69.00
||Stop Loss: 68.30
S1/ S2: 68.50/68.30
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