Aban Offshore: Experts on the FY10 earnings forecast

Published on Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 12:33 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 22:24  

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Deven Choksey, KR Choksey Securities

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Q: Do you concur or do you think there is merit in the bidding war heading even higher on this one?

Choksey: I think looking at the cash position in ABG's books; I find that they can stretch this particular price to almost as high as Rs 635 for Great Offshore. At such point of time, I think their debt equity ratio would have stretched above 1 to somewhere around 1.1 or 1.2. If Bharati had to match the same price, the debt equity ratio would jump up to 1.7 times. I think this is going to be probably problem for Bharati. At such point of time if they hve to match this price.

I think the rationale for both these companies is that Great Offshore 's old assets which are going for a repair and upgradation, I think that is where both these companies are fighting for the business and that is where one would like to see as to how they will probably take up this particular scenario forward because in all probabilities it looks like that if they stretch the price to above Rs 600 levels to Rs 635 as I have indicated which is also the valuation which ABG is commanding, I think if the Great Offshore probably matches that valuation then this price is matching. If that price comes up then possibly most of the long-term holders maybe some of the insurance companies maybe tempted to sell these shares at this juncture and probably cash out and give its control to maybe ABG at such point of time. But I would put it this way that those investors who are stuck in this company, they are getting in an opportunity to cash out at higher price and probably reenter when the things cool down thereafter.

Q: Give us a word on Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), the stock which has been clear outperformer in the last few days for the market. What is your sense of how to approach that one at Rs 500?

Shah: I don't cover the stock as such so I will not be in a position to comment.

  

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