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20 Feb 2013 - 16:00hrs hrs

Ambareesh Baliga | Independent Analyst

 

Time to book profits?

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Ambareesh Baliga: Hi Everybody....
kayun: Hi Ambareesh, any chance of Opto Circuit to bounce back to 100 level which is my purchase price? kindly advice what i should do about it. thanks alot in advance
Ambareesh Baliga: Any stock, especially mid caps, if there is a corporate governance issue and/or balance sheet issues, the stock gets into a tailspin from which it doesn`t recover. The bounce back gets weaker & weaker. After the problems surfaced, the stock did bounce back on a number of occasions, but it wasn`t higher than the previous one... So any bounce back exit - don`t wait for your price.... See what`s happened to a number of other stocks - Tulip etc.
koshyvarghese: Hi Ambreesh, I have 800 shares of Dishman Pharma at Rs 98/ share...Willing to hold for a term of 3 years ,even if it flls below my price....I can even buy more, if needed..What is the outlook foir this Company ???
Ambareesh Baliga: Dishman has disappointed in the quarterly results but I don`t think that`s a cause of worry. Your buying price is not too high hence hold since you have a long term view. This stock could give you a 100% return.
koshyvarghese: Hi, I am holding 1800 shares of NHPC at an average price of Rs 18 per share...Can hold it for a very long term....Kindly advice me on this scrip..thanks
Ambareesh Baliga: People were tired of holding this stock but in your case the entry level was excellent and it`s paid off. It`s in a strong upmove and don`t be a hurry to book... Could see levels of 35
neetins: Sir, I have buy IVRCL Infra 3000 stocks @40, please suggest me way forward for this stock
Ambareesh Baliga: The only reason this stock was in action was due to the failed take over bid of Zee Group. The balance sheet is stretched and I don`t see high commitment levels from the promoters who have a miniscule holding in the company. Don`t wait for your purchase price - exit closer to 35/36
padayamvalli: sir i am holding 300 hdfc@801,exide 500@141 and mahindraugine last 3yrs 500 @100 how much more i can expect by dec 13 or need any changes plase advise thanks in advance.
Ambareesh Baliga: I expect a decent rally post budget as it should be a fiscally prudent budget which the FIIs will hail. Exit Mahindra Ugine & Exide in the post budget rally but hold HDFC for long term.
marketanalysis2: Sir, I have shares of Idea Cellular at the rate of Rs 102/- per share. Please advice regarding the target and timeframe. I am willing to hold this stock for the long term. Thanks.
Ambareesh Baliga: Idea has been a more consistent performer than Bharti which has been quite volatile. Idea can move to about 120/25 in the next 6-8 months and Bharti should be able to see levels of 390/400. However in the longer term, beyond next 2 years I see Bharti`s African business contributing majorly to the bottom line - hence I would suggest a shift to Bharti if you are looking at long term.
praravinda_2012: sir,how you will link budget to stock market ?
Ambareesh Baliga: Before any major such event, the market starts discounting the event.... This time marketmen don`t expect a big bang budget as it will be a tight rope walk for the FM. Hence we haven`t seen any pre-budget rally - In case the budget surprises on the positive - which I expect - as FM doesn`t have a choice but to create an environment to attract investments - the markets could move up post budget.
dhiren.mona: Share Your views on Bartronics. can it become a multibagger??
Ambareesh Baliga: There are two aspects to a number of such companies - The core business of the company and the Balance Sheet issues - The core business is still promising but the Balance Sheet doesn`t allow it perform.... Some of the companies are managing to work around - Wockhardt is a great example - Suzlon is trying to do it now. You may have read the headlines recently about Credit Card frauds and RBI now insisting on chip based credit cards - Bartronics has been waiting for this since the last 4 years with enough capacity which was lying idle - just because RBI had not insisted on it. They have also got into UID which should pay off. But whether I am recommending to buy @ current levels - No. As the management has promised time & again to deliver but have failed... Will wait for the green shoots before recommending. But since you have been holding - you have nothing much to lose -
koshyvarghese: Hi, Can you suggest good mid cap banks in PSU for a long term holding of about 3 years..I have shortlisted Allahabad , Dena and IOB...Which is the best among them...Thanks
Ambareesh Baliga: I would suggest Dena and Allahabd. Among the Pvt sector look at DCB.
ppradeepkumar53: i had nhpc 580@36 and pfc 500@193,rec 100@121 should sell? no increase in rate
Ambareesh Baliga: You are losing only in NHPC but the way it is moving you should get a price close to your entry price. The power sector is slowly but steadily looking up with increase in tarriffs and hopeful resolution of the feed stock issues. The first to benefit would be the finance related and ancillary companies - Hence I would suggest you to hold all these stocks from a 2-3 year perspective
rj-2013: i have buy dlf pe 250, buying rate 4.8 , what m doing hold or sell
Ambareesh Baliga: You have bought a Put so not to worry. Your losses are limited to the premium. The stock seems to be a trading momentum after some upgrades from broking houses - doubt whether you would get levels below 250 immediately before the expiry.
stocktracker97: Ambareesh ji, I have purchased KEI Industries 2 years back at the rate of Rs 42/- per share. Now this scrip is quoting at Rs 13/- levels. Why this stock in the power cable segment has fallen so much? Kindly provide me with a logical target and timeframe. Do you forsee those levels again in the near future? Thanks.
Ambareesh Baliga: Most of the mid cap and small caps are facing a trust factor issue - people don`t trust the figures being published by the management nor do they beleive any sort of announcements being made. After a spate of corporate governance issues which have surfaced, everyone has been painted with the same brush. Also though FIIs have been the driving force in the market in the last couple of years - they have been avoiding mid caps whereas the local investors especially the retail & HNIs are hardly there in the market. I don`t think you may get 42/- for this stock but it`s possible to have a bounce to levels of 25/26 in a good market.
wiseinvestor77: Sir, I am holding 1000 shares of Jaiprakash Associates purchased at the rate of Rs 103/-per share. Please advice regarding the target and timeframe. I am willing to hold this stock for the long term. Thanks.
Ambareesh Baliga: Buy more around current levels - the cement sale trigger keeps coming back - but exit around 90/95
marketsingreen: Sir, kindly advice me regarding the long term target for Diamond Power Infrastructure as I am holding a huge chunk of this scrip at Rs 250/- levels. All brokerage houses were recommending this scrip at that time. Now this scrip is at Rs 92/- levels. Will I be able to see my purchase price in the near future? Also, how long will this scrip take to recover? Thanks for your help.
Ambareesh Baliga: Hold - the fortunes should improve - the biggest problem for such companies is the cash flows from State Electricity Boards - but hopefully the financial situation for them should improve thus helping Diamond. I doubt whether you will get levels of 250/- but 140/- is a possiblity
Ambareesh Baliga: Thanks everybody... though there are a number of question un-answered... I will catch up in the next fortnight...
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