Nifty may move up 100 pts today

We have got shot at green though today?

Yes, we did pretty well yesterday from the lows of the day; FIIs were buying, rollovers are okay. There is a little bit of pre-Budget mood which is going around, there is more talk of Union Budget in the last couple of days and we held a bit of a range yesterday, decent leadership lead by Reliance Industries so I think the mood can’t be too bad as we go into trade.

It’s not like we are jumping away to 6,000 day after tomorrow but as things go we are more green than red this morning. I wouldn’t be surprise if the Nifty made a move of another 100-150 points not just today maybe over the next couple of days.  I think more good than bad as we go into trade this morning.      

 Asian Indices:

Asia started strong then lost its way so now it is somewhere in between trying to find its feet on whether it needs to go up or needs to go down. This is not a great reaction to a 200-point rally from the Dow but maybe Asia was strong yesterday and therefore today the reaction is not great.

Nikkei is flat, China is down, Kospi is down, Taiwan is flat; Hang Seng is the one, which is still holding out about 1% gain but inconclusive kind of an Asian scene this morning.

Q: What about the global cues on a daily basis, it seems like the joker in the pack?

A: It is and its inconclusive, so one day there is some relief on the bond insurers and the market goes up and next day there is some bad news on some mortgage insurance company and then the market goes down. The data is not pointing in any particular direction. I think over the next few days you have got a few important data points, the GDP numbers will also come in, home sales came in yesterday and they are mildly better than expectations. There is Ben Bernanke’s testimony as well in the middle of the week. So all of those are important data points but my sense is that March or the beginning of March is probably the important bit for the global markets because you will see lots of numbers coming in from the financial companies.

If there is more pain, which comes in and I think it will come in the next 15 days of March and that’s the period which you might want to watch out for. The Budget would be over then, you would not have quite made it to earnings, so the only trigger for the market would be what’s coming from the global area and it could be two ways. If there are more write downs, those numbers show up a lot of pain, it is entirely possible that the global markets break down then and you go back and test the January lows. That remains the central risk over the next few weeks to the markets, I don’t think it is the Budget or the Railway Budget or stuff like that but it could be what’s coming in from the global markets in the month of March. If we can tide over that without too much damage or without breaking trend lines etc then I think there is a reasonable chance of being mildly optimistic but if we breakdown then, then we’ll have a bigger problem on our hands.