Mkts to stay in positive territory post-Infy results

There are too many cues for the market today. Infosys better than expectations numbers is going to help the markets.

At this time, markets is looking for support from market leaders. The headwinds in today's markets are crude and marktes would not like it. We could see levels of 4300-4400. We expect modest gains this morning, it could be more than modest gains also depending on Infosys news. The start depends on the Infosys numbers and the middle of the day, there are some macro numbers.

What will be the impact of Infosys results on sector, market?

Unless Infosys becomes ultra conservative even after beating its Q1 margin by such a margin and does not up its guidance significantly and now if Infosys just does not change its guidance then the market will not like it one bit because they have the Q1 cushion, they have the rupee cushion and they have to up that guidance by atleast Rs 3-4 if not more and once they do that the stock will move up the sector will move up as well.

The market has been looking for support from some of its leaders but Reliance has not been providing the support over the last couple of days and that has been a disappointment although support has come from ICICI Bank, from the odd SBI, sometimes from Bharti but if IT which is still quite a bit of weightage on the Index starts to move a little bit then you get over this hump 4,200 Nifty and get to the next hump of 4,300-4,400

The headwind this morning iscrude once again because we just spent a couple of days at USD 136/bbl and we have bounced back to USD 141-142/bbl that is what the market will not like but the fact that global market is stable and last couple of days we have shown an inclination to hold a range and try and move up a little bit is also quite encouraging.

I think from market point of view, one could play for modest gains this morning and if guidance is in place then one could play for more than modest gains for Infosys this morning.

There is just so much more stacked in aside from crude, there is inflation, IIP numbers:

Yes, there are too many moving parts to the puzzle right now, so we don’t know what will happen to the other moving part.

Inflation we are broadly expecting in the zone of 11.6-11.9% and anything in that zone is acceptable from the market point of view but if we get to the psychological 12% plus then market just cool off a bit but otherwise it’s fine.

The IIP numbers are very important and one should not underestimate because a surprise is more likely from IIP which is difficult to map rather than inflation, so if the IPP number is more than 7% then probably market will take it a bit easy but anything sub 6-6.5% will not go down well with the street at all.

Middle of the day we have got another date with some macro numbers but the first bit belongs to Infosys but the second half may belong to macro numbers and how we move from there.

More to come...