It has been an interesting day of trade, started with a big gap-up and then we have sort of cooled off and spent the day broadly in that 4900-4950 kind of range. There is nothing wrong with that. But it has not been an easy cruise above 5,000 and the Nifty has not been able to stay there. Of course the IIP numbers spoilt the mood to some extent.

Globally things have been okay, they have been a bit volatile. But in our markets too we have seen some choppiness today after the relative strength and the pullback of the last couple of days. It is still holding, about 1% up. It is a crucial one hour of trade and how we close today might be important in determining sentiment for the next few sessions at least.

Q: Will it be a disappointment that we didn’t get to 5,000 or will it be okay that we managed to trade in the green?

A: It depends on how we close. I think the jury is still out on that. We have been just toing and froing between 4900 and 4950. The market so far has not broken down below 4900. There is an attempt to hold that level out. I think even if we close around these levels, no great damage would have been done because we’ve managed to claw back. I don’t think anybody thought that it would be a cakewalk to get above 5100.

So predictably, resistance has come in above that 4950-5000 mark and we have retraced somewhat, given up some gains. The mood is skittish and not quite sanguine yet. So, you can understand that traders have taken profits wherever they had profits after the bounceback in the last couple of days. We haven’t seen huge amount of follow-up buying yet in today’s trade and that is a little disappointing.

I still think if we get away somewhere around these levels it would not be too damaging because we will then say, okay we have got back to this kind of resistance zone, let’s spend some time and consolidate around these levels and see whether we can cross over this hump. But I don’t think that this is a surprise that we are seeing some resistance. The closing will be important. If we break down below 4900 and give up all the gains today, then I think the bullish traders might just rein-in their optimism a little bit. But if we can close anywhere between 4900-4950, I think the bullish traders will hold out for another day.