The week gone by had a lot happening, it was the unofficial start of earnings; it was also a market that was stuck in a range and of course a lot of data to wade through.

By the end of it we have not done badly, no big breakout but at least it is a green tick by the time we wrap up and most importantly, it became more and more about individual stocks. So the midcap index and the Nifty Junior has actually outperformed and lots of individual performances whether it is a Sasken or an Orchid or a Global Vectra all close up very nicely. Inflation came and went, it did not look pretty, the IIP data came and went it seemed optically a little bit better but of course next week is the big one where we have got the official kick off to earnings.

Q: What happens next week?

I think there are few positives one can take away from the week, we have not affected a technical breakout to be sure going into next week, they are still in a trading range from a trading perspective but we are up 3% for the week and as you said, some midcaps have done well and it is always a good sign when interest returns to some of the underperformers and the forgotten sectors. The biggest underperformers and the complete apathy has in sectors like power and midcap IT and I think without exception you have seen interest coming back there.

This week you spotted stocks like Punj Lloyd, the forgotten Reliance Energy, the forgotten Neyveli Lignite, some of the midcap IT names and that is all very encouraging because it tells you that people are now willing to look at stocks, which have got beaten down quite mercilessly not to suggest that they will carry the mantle of leadership in to next week but at least the first signs of interest are visible in the beaten down sectors which is a positive takeaway.

The other positive takeaway is that the market has dealt with bad news pretty well this week, which refused to buckle down under pressure. In fact despite the poor inflation data and a couple of other bad news points which have come in this week the Nifty has not made the journey to 4,600 and sub 4,600 this week. That I think is a positive thing that one can takeaway.

Of course, it could all turn but all we are saying is that what are we carrying as a baggage to next week and I think also very importantly though we talk less and less about it nowadays, the global set up-emerging markets are doing pretty well. If we just plot what has happened to the US market to other emerging markets around us week on week, I think you will see that most markets over the last fortnight have actually done much better than us. So I think we still are in the midst of that global pullback kind of mode, which sets us also having underperformed quite so much in little bit of a good spot. So unless there is disappointment from Infosys or something, which we cannot predict I think we are going into next week feeling a little bit more bullish than bearish.

Q: This is something which we are trying to gauge the start of Friday’s trade as well how much more sting is there for the equity market from all the data that we have been getting on a macro front?

A: They remain headwinds, there is no getting away from that, I think this inflation figure was bad, it is just that the market saw 7% a week before and therefore this time it might have been a bit more prepared for it. I think next week’s expectation is that the inflation data will be bad as well though week after maybe we could see inflation easing off a bit because of some of the measures which have been taken. So this next week also which is a truncated week again we might see not very encouraging inflation data but the market is expecting that.

In terms of the IIP data, I think premature to start celebrating because we had one extraday this February the base was low etc so I think we are still running sluggish IIP. So we are not out of the woods with that slowdown yet. But I think the macrodata is something that we need to contend with which is why one feels a little bit more hopeful that even after looking at and the market is no fool, it understands the IIP data and understands that the inflation data is bad and will remain bad but despite that, we did not see a Friday sell off like we saw last Friday.

So I think the downward momentum has been exhausted to a certain extent, which is perhaps good news. Do not want to sound too optimistic because we do have macro headwinds against us right now but I suspect that we are dealing with it a little bit better than we were dealing with it ten days back.

Q: It will also be about Infosys on Tuesday, huge air of circumspection this time around but how much is riding for the markets on Infosys and what they say?

A: It’s the annual guidance, so this is the most important event for the IT calendar. This time there is a bit of a hope build in but Friday Infosys cooled off a little bit, which makes me hopeful that even if it’s not very encouraging, the stock will hopefully will not sell off too much. We can talk endlessly about IT, Rupee, US economy etc since we are now almost at the event, this just work with basic numbers. I think the basic number is Rs 92 anything more than Rs 92 will please the street, Rs 92 earnings per share next year guidance I’m talking about. Anything more than Rs 92 will please the street and you could see a journey back to Rs 1,500 for Infosys. Anything between Rs 90-92 is a no mans land, where you won’t be too happy, you won’t be too unhappy, so the stock may just turn flattish, in which case it won’t be a big market trigger. Anything sub Rs 90 is a bad news, I hope it won’t come and I don’t think it will but if it does then one should expect a sell off in IT.

Q: Next week it is a small one or a short one but is it going to be an extremely important one from the markets perspective?

A: The best thing is it is a short one because it's a three days week that's fantastic. You get three days weekend and then three days of work and then three days off again, it's very rarely in a year that we get so many days off. Not us we are doing Infosys at the start of it and Wipro at the end of it so not too many holidays for us. But I think it's good that people have got a little bit of a breather but its an important week. Not the make or break week for earnings because its only Infosys which will stand tall for those three days. I think there is a lot of expectations, apprehensions for the big old economy companies, when they come out in the subsequent week. But its an important week but truncated, I think people will get a breather and that they should enjoy it.