Bit of profit taking will happen in Orchid

CNBC-TV18’s Executive Editor, Udayan Mukherjee - I think yesterday’s announcement from Ranbaxy might come as a bit of a disappointment for the Orchid punters because now it seems that one may not get an open offer that’s what the Ranbaxy management seems to be indicating if one takes that as face value. I think the fun is probably over the moment. Of course, these should never be taken at face value because promoters sometimes say one thing and do another.
 
So for the moment I think the futures guys were offloading some of their futures holdings in Orchid. It may well happen today as well if people fear that the open offer will not come from Ranbaxy. It’s run-up quite a bit from Rs 120-330 so a bit of profit taking will happen. The last mile people will probably bailout right now. So it is possible that Orchid goes back to Rs 200 or even sub Rs 200 in the near-term; entirely possible.
 
Don’t go by fair value assumptions or anything like that; Orchid was Rs 320, now trading at Rs 230. It has done far better than any of its midcap pharmaceutical peers. So it’s not about fair value or anything like that - it’s about an event trigger; robbed off which I think Orchid Chemicals go back to sub Rs 200 levels.
 
There is a lot of talk about if there is no open offer or a hostile takeover bid, what else can happen? Associations or some other kind of announcements from the two managements are working together. I don’t know whether those will fructify because what have we heard for the last couple of days; one promoter saying, “I don’t want to sell, I will not sell, I will seek support from FIIs, I build this company, why would I want to sell?”
 
There will be mistrust between the two promoter groups now; one has quietly acquired 12% stake and he is not talking about some kind of an alliance. That’s not the environment on which one strikes alliances and work together. I don’t know whether those things will work out much that the market is talking about. But for the near-term I think for the traders it could be a bit more disappointment.