Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Rajat Bose:

Q: What’s the short-term trend looking like though for the market for a Nifty trader?

A: If one was a Nifty trader and had been playing long then one would have cut position yesterday when the Nifty was coming below 5,150. But I have a feeling that today we are likely to see a bounce back and maybe once again above 5,165-5,170, the 200 day simple moving average level.

Once it goes above that there would be quite a few people who would be coming to actually initiate long positions and chances are that we would open around that level and try to move up. But unless and until one sees the Nifty going above 5,225-5,235 resistant zones this move is unlikely to be sustained and if it crosses those levels then 5,285-5,305 would be the target.

As of now with a stop placed below 5,080 and if it were to open lower below 5,150 I would like to play on the long side.   

Q: A couple of chart checks on real estate Unitech and DLF after yesterday’s reversal. How are they looking technically?

A: For Unitech yesterday was a sort of a reversal day and now unless it recovers and moves above the range of Rs 318-320 chances are if it falls below Rs 300 level now then it can even go down to consolidate and test the support level around Rs 284-285.

DLF’s position is even weaker. DLF having broken the support level around Rs 691 yesterday tested even Rs 670 levels and closed below that. So unless it stays above Rs 670 today I do not expect any kind of recovery there. On the other hand if DLF were to fall below Rs 657 then one can even see it going down to Rs 644. These two leaders in the real estate pack are not looking good at this point in time.   

Q: What about the bank stocks. How are they looking technically, the ones which have been flying like UCO Bank, Indian Bank and Vijaya Bank etc?

A: These stocks have actually moved up quite a bit and buying at current levels maybe a bit risky but suppose if one has already bought a stock like UCO Bank; I would put a stop loss below Rs 47 and continue to hold. But buying above Rs 49 at this juncture might be a bit risky.

Same goes for Indian Bank. Buying at current levels one runs the risk of actually getting stopped out on any marginal downswing that may happen if the market were to weaken. Among these stocks you mentioned UCO, Vijaya Bank and Indian Bank; I find UCO has the best of relative strength and if one has to play on the long side then wait for a marginal decline to Rs 49 or so and then put a stop loss below Rs 46 and on the upside expect something like Rs 57-58 in the short to medium-term.       

Q: What levels would you watch carefully now as a trader 5,120 on the Nifty now?

A: 5,120 to about 5,105 is minor support area but the major support area for the Nifty would be 5,080-5,020. I do not expect that the Nifty would break that. Already we have had nearly 4% correction if one takes 5,298 top, three days back.

Lets watch out if 5,100 is broken or not and if 5,100 is really broken then from 5,080 to about 5,020 since there are so many moving averages and Fibonacci support areas, I expect some demand to come around those levels and the market may actually show a pullback rally at least to the 200 day moving simple moving average which is located around 5,165-5,167.   

Q: Had a look at NIIT’s chart. It was 5% up yesterday another 4% today. How is that looking technically?

A: NIIT is looking good, in fact I have a feeling that NIIT may actually move up to something like Rs 117 to about Rs 121; these are the immediate targets. If one is taking a long position here for a short-term trade then stop loss should be below Rs 108 and NIIT’s relative strength compared to a lot of other stocks is quite good.

Q: There are two views for the Nifty traders now, some suggest break down or test of 5,000 and other believe it could go to 5,300, which camp are you in?

A: I would say 5,070-5,020 on the lower side and about 5,225-5,235 on the upper side. I am not joining any camp because I might change my side even during the day.

Disclosure:

It is safe to assume that my clients & I may have an interest in the stocks/sectors discussed.