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(Interview Transcript)
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Technical Analyst Sudarshan Sukhani said markets are indecisive at this point. He suggests profits should be taken by short term traders. He sees 5,075 as a benchmark, but also says 5,000 is significant for everyone and if Nifty breaks that, everyone can start planning short positions. He said, "If 5,075 breaks down on a closing basis, I'm out."
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Sudarshan Sukhani:
Q: What is your sense do you expect a test of those 5,000-5,050 kinds of levels on the Nifty and do you think they will hold?
A: I wouldn’t know that because the markets are now a little indecisive 5,300 was resistance that we discussed earlier many times and that was the point which all of us has suggested that profits should be taken by short-term traders. What about the people who hold intermediate positions? For me, I am looking at 5,075 as the benchmark and if the Nifty were to close below this number then I would assume that the intermediate trend is no longer up it’s not necessarily down. But that is the point that, which all positions apart from the long-term investments should be closed out.
Trading positions I assume are not there in any case. Where do you go short? That 5,000 number is significant for everyone if the Nifty were to break 5,000 that would be a big message and that’s a point where you can start planning short positions. So to the original question, will 5,075 or 5,100 hold? The answer is we really don’t know we will just have to wait. But fortunately we can create, make our plans accordingly. If 5,075 breaks down on a closing basis, I am out and each trader will have to find his own comfort zone.
Q: Two big movers from yesterday Cairn India from the frontliners and HOEC?
A: Both also happen to be part of that oil-gas broad sector. Cairn India has been in an uptrend for a long time now six-months or so. It fell with the January decline, it has resumed that upmove. Every dip in this stock remains a buying opportunity and I have repeated this many number of times and those who have bought should hold on to it. We do not know what the highs are at this point there are no divergences, there are no bearish signals in the charts. So just wait, buy or add on dips.
HOEC is the same kind of chart that Cairn India has except that HOEC is now reaching its earlier 2006 tops. So that’s a place where a lot of resistance is expected to come in. So this is a stock, which has jumped up moved up and where profits should be taken. Traders and investors should step aside and wait for a period of consolidation or whatever else happens.
Q: What looks best from the sugar charts?
A: I am sorry to say that sugar now gives the impression of toping out. The wise decision now is to take profits and exit. Shree Renuka Sugars, which has seen a dream-run, is suggesting that it is very close to an intermediate top. So is the case with my favourite Bajaj Hindusthan. At this point a dip can still be a buying opportunity only for short-term traders but that is also not there today. But this sector appears to have done its bit.
Q: Any intra-day level do you have in mind that which your longs would get cut out or you would wait for a closing below 5,075?
A: The idea was actually it was not the longs in the Nifty I explained that Nifty traders should not be long anywhere because the idea was to get out close to 5,300. All the other intermediate positions which are non-Nifty which maybe in individual stocks or in futures, these positions need to be cut out if the Nifty were to close below 5,075 on a closing level because there maybe a lot of intra-day volatility. So that volatility and the risk of a much lower close have to be suffered. I am saying that I would be zero in my intermediate positions, if the Nifty does this.
Q: Had a look at the charts of Praj Industries?
A: Praj Industries has been moving up after that sharp correction it’s now closed again to it’s earlier all-time highs, which were recorded earlier. At this point I feel that traders should take profits and come out and either wait for a correction or wait for a significant breakout to occur. As the technical picture is, this is not a time to enter; it is a time to actually exit the stock.
All of a sudden I find sectors and a lot of stocks where this resistance levels are coming up, giving suggestions that take profits and wait for sometime. That is what the Nifty seems to be suggesting.
Q: How is Bharti Airtel’s chart looking at Rs 830?
A: It is not looking good. Bharti Airtel in any case gives the impression that the uptrend is over, the stock is in a long-term consolidation which means resistance ever time it crosses Rs 1,000 or touches that level and maybe support around Rs 700. This is not a chart, which you want to keep as an investor and for trading also- see these ranges give very little trading opportunities. They will be there but much less.
I would prefer Reliance Communications, which is much more volatile it swings more it goes up faster and comes down faster giving trading opportunities on both sides.
I have delta neutral positions in Nifty and investments in shares.
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