Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Rajat Bose:

Q: How do you see the Nifty now today around 4,800 we might trade around a bit, are you confident about 5,000 plus in the near-term?

A: To put the total movement in perspective there had been three major falls in 2004-2006-2008. What I have found is that on the line charts this fall has similarity with somewhat 2006 as well and from the moving average charts the fall has similarity to that of 2004 and on both the instances, what I find is that chances are that there is a bottom formation happening of course between 4,900-4,960. There are quite a few moving averages some of them are monthly or weekly moving averages, so they will produce some kind of resistance, some kind of supply pressure.

But at the same time I’m not expecting the Nifty to sustain below 4,750- 4,700 support zone and this rally is not going to be a spike like thing, what we saw may be day before yesterday but there will be a slow bit of a recovery if patterns and history of the charts are anything to go by. So chances are that it might take sometime to cross that 5,050 to 5,250 major resistance zone. But my feeling is that over the next few weeks you will see those levels getting crossed by the Nifty and most of the largecaps are showing some positive divergences on their end of day chart, so chances are that the movement will be positive of course the consolidation at the current levels may be on the cards.

Q: A couple of chart checks on midcap technology stocks which did well yesterday KPIT Cummins, Mastek, Firstsource, Mphasis, whichever you track?

A: I would like to comment on KPIT Cummins, it has shown a good bounce back. The difference between KPIT Cummins’s bounce back and Mastek’s bounce back is that Mastek’s bounce back don’t sustain much longer. My feeling is that Mastek will fall, may be it will move up a little bit higher then yesterday’s high or close but it will come down, it surrenders its gains.

On the other hand if you look at KPIT Cummins then possibilities has it that if the market supports then KPIT might well hit Rs 93, around that level between Rs 90-93 there would be some kind of supply but if it overcomes that, then there will be a good move up to Rs 105 but for now let’s expect that KPIT will move upto something like Rs 90-93, put a stop below Rs 75, so that one can trade long on that counter. 

Q: How are some of these looking technically stocks like Yes Bank and IndusInd Bank?

A: In IndusInd Bank already we had three days of rally in succession, chances are that you will see moving upto something like Rs 93-95 in the short run, may be today if the market is positive.

In Yes Bank the move has been sharp, just as the fall had been sharp the rebound is also sharp. Now chances are if it doesn’t get past Rs 200, then you will see going down to test Rs 185. My feeling is that it will test or consolidate between Rs 190-180 before really crossing successfully the Rs 200 mark. 

Q: Have you taken a look at the charts of either Orbit or IndiaBulls Realty?

A: I would say that Orbit looks good. Infact yesterday there has been a good amount of movement in Orbit. I would say that now chances are that if it trades above Rs 460-470 zone, then possibility has it that you will see move upto Rs 540-550 and there is a tweezer bottom formation day before yesterday. So the near-term outlook is positive but the level between the Rs 550 and Rs 600 would be a supply zone for Orbit.

Q: What do you do from a trading perspective 4,800 plus can you still open a long on the Nifty?

A: I would say that definitely you wait a bit more may be another 15-20 minutes because this is the initial phase, Nifty doesn’t give much of a direction. But looking at the bounce back from 4,769, my feeling is that possibly we can open a long position after a little while and meanwhile you can take some position in some of the stronger counters like ONGC or in the midcap KPIT Cummins.

Q: A couple of chart checks with you DLF and Bank of India, if you have taken a look?

A: DLF and Unitech both have shown some mild recoveries but DLF would have to sustain above Rs 656, which I believe is about a couple of percentage points away from the current level. If it were to do so then expect some recovery, otherwise I would say that it’s better to stay away from DLF unless you were intending to take a short position because I’m not betting on much of a recovery in the real estate space except for stocks like Puravankara, which may give a little bit of rally in the short-term.

Bank of India has to consolidate at current levels and unless the consolidation happens between Rs 256-265, then once it crosses the Rs 265 mark, you will see good move on the upside which may take it to something like Rs 279-282, otherwise it may fall below Rs 256.

Disclosure:

It is safe to assume that my clients & I may have an interest in the stocks/sectors discussed