Left withdraws support to UPA

According to Vinod Sharma, Political Editor, Hindustan Times the government would be able to pass the confidence vote when the Parliament convenes the monsoon session, but with a degree of risk. “The numbers that are been mentioned are not exactly the kind of numbers that may eventually turn out to be when the house votes on this trust vote or the no confidence the way the political tide turns.”

Sharma said that the government might eventually survive on the strength of extensions rather than to the strength of actually those who vote for them. “There is this big question mark about the number the SP has in its pocket, whether it is 39 or 39 minus 6, or whether it is 39 as it is because the minus 6 will actually go along with the Congress like Raj Babbar etc.”

Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Sharma said, the smaller parties like the RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal), the Janata Dal Secular and also the Sikkim Democratic Front, will go along with the UPA and the six independents that are being mentioned are not entirely with the UPA.  Three of them are with UPA and the remaining three are perhaps sitting on the fence or could be on the side of NDA, he added.

Sharma believes that the numbers game would be determined by those who do not turn up in the House and abstain from casting the vote. “This could include the Shiv Sena, some people from amongst the NDA and many forces are at work to ensure that the UPA is able to survive this trail of strength and these force are not just within the country but are international forces having vested interest to ensure that the deal goes through.” So the nuclear suppliers group is not going to be as difficult as perhaps the numbers supplier group within the country, which includes the Samajwadi and others, he added.

He feels that there are two ways the government will survive - one  is the clear majority that you have in the house. “But another is the majority which you have amongst those present and voting, and in that eventuality the government shall survive but it shall have technically a minority status because it wouldn't have a majority in the existing strength of the house, it would only have a majority amongst those present and voting.”  

According to Nilotpal Basu, MP, Rajya Sabha, CPI (M), there is no looking back for the Left parties now. He states two reasons - one is, as decided earlier on November 16, 2007, it was decided that the government after preliminary discussions would come back to the Committee with the outcome of their discussions. “This means the text that has been negotiated as a result of that. But they refused to share that text with us. Several questions remain unanswered, which we have also pointed out in a Press Statement.”