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Nifty resistance around 4610-4625: Rajat Bose
Published on Mon, Jun 16, 2008 at 09:46 , Updated at Mon, Jun 16, 2008 at 18:20
Source : CNBC-TV18
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There will be a pullback in day trading. According to him, it is a time to wait for investment purchases as he sees more crisis coming. Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Rajat Bose: Q: Technically what is it looking like if you get that gap up, how would you then approach the Nifty from here? A: Assuming that we will have a gap up opening and it will cross a significant resistance around 4,560 to about 4,566, the next target would be 4,610 to above 4,625. Then putting a stop below at 4,550, one can actually take a long position and expect it to go up to 4,625 because the momentum happens to be pretty good.
Nifty has been falling from 5,167 and touched the low of 4,369. The Fibonacci retracement level is around 4,680 kind of levels and there is also resistance around 4,710. So, unless and until we see 4,680 to 4,710 getting decisively crossed, this would still be a pullback rally. For day-trading definitely one can make some money on the long side. I would rather wait for doing some investment purchases. There are quite a few candidates especially among pivotals, which have retraced 61.8% or more of their total 2003-2008 bull run. So, they may become an investment buy but let us wait for a panic then maybe we can buy.
Q: How is the chart looking there in Chambal? A: Chambal has a resistance around Rs 94-95. If Rs 94-95 is crossed then the range between Rs 100-102 would offer some resistance. If we get very good move, then level of Rs 110 to about Rs115 can be reached. This is a major supply area. So, in a long position, I would partly book profit around Rs 102 and then liquidate my positions around Rs 110-115. I would not be interested in going long in Nagarjuna. Q: Two pharmaceutical stocks and what do you see on them technically, Ranbaxy and Fortis if you track it? A: On Friday, we saw renewed buying on Ranbaxy. As of now, Rs 585 to Rs 591 would act as some kind of a resistance area. The renewed buying suggests that Ranbaxy might well go up to something like Rs 610 or so. Just around early 2005 or late 2004, there was a top around Rs 640 in Ranbaxy and that might well be tested if these resistance levels are crossed. Unless and until you see Ranbaxy falling below Rs 530, this momentum would actually carry. This momentum is not going to taper off immediately because of interest by Pfizer and all. So, as of now let us expect Rs 591 and then Rs 610 in the interim. Regarding Fortis, it looks okay but would wait for more buying. I am not that confident in Fortis at current levels. I want to see Rs 84-87 levels getting crossed successfully; only then I would be interested in making a position in that. Q: Still no meaningful recovery visible in JP Associates and GMR. How are they looking technically to you? A: No meaningful recovery is yet visible whereas some of these stocks have actually advanced. If you take a broader perspective from 2003 to 2008, I have seen stocks advancing buys, in some cases 40 times, in some cases 45 times and now they are reacting. These kind of companies may take a while before you see any meaningful recovery. You can definitely look at GMR above Rs 110 with a short-term view of Rs 117-118 which is a trading call, nothing beyond that.
Q: If you did hold on to a long from Friday this morning and get some more strength as it seems likely, would you book out or hold on to that long position on the Nifty? A: If 4,610-4,625 is crossed I would rather carry on expecting 4,680 to be tested. If it fails to do that, I would book part profits and my stop loss will be placed below 4,550 for the rest of the position. I have recommended carrying forward Nifty long positions on last Friday as well. Q: What would be your trading idea today? A: One can buy into Biocon that is another Indian pharma company. Biocon is likely to move up to something like Rs 556 levels and if it crosses that, then it can move up further. For now, one can go long in Biocon because its performance seems to be pretty good technically speaking. Q: What is the right way to trade an IFCI, which has lost 10% in two days? A: If you look at IFCI, Rs 62 is the resistance level on the upside whereas when it comes down it takes a good support around Rs 53. It is a news-driven stock. One can actually put a stop below Rs 55.50. If it falls below Rs 55.50 then one have Rs 2.50 on hand and put a stop above Friday’s close. Q: Can you initiate a trade on Nifty, on a Future or an Option at 4,590? A: Nifty futures is trading at 4,574 but you can put a stop below 4,555 on the Nifty futures and expect 4,600. But, 4,650-4,700 kind of levels can come. Definitely going short on calls with good premium and Nifty futures might be positive because moving average is suggesting that there could be a good fall from those levels.
Q: Have you looked at those charts for GHCL? A: GHCL is up already and if it is trading above Rs 72-74 kind of levels, then you can expect it to move upto something like Rs 80-81 but this is only a pull back rally. It is a very sharp rally after a equally sharp fall, so this kind of pull back rallies are good opportunities for some people to exit. Unless and until GHCL crosses Rs 95 decisively, it would not show any sustainable strength going forward.
Disclosures: It is safe to assume that my clients & I may have an investment interest in the stocks/sectors discussed. |
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Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
I could find one message here...... Lalitdeshpandey on ( 07-Oct-08 04:46 ) Dear Friends, In recent ...
in Market Analysis - Technical View - Lalitdeshpandey at 10-Oct-08 11:53
Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177
You are 100 % correct...............
in Market Analysis - Technical View - Lalitdeshpandey at 10-Oct-08 11:50
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