Expect a dull trading day today: Amit Nalin Secs

Q: Assuming that the UPA makes the numbers - do you see this current rally taking the Sensex beyond 15,000 or do you think upsides are capped despite the news?

A: This is completely my call on it: I think the decision or whatever we get out of the vote today is 500 to 800 points on the Sensex either way. If they lose that’s the kind of fall we see and that’s why I said that we are very lucky because we have had the short covering. If we were at 12,800 right now, the fear and the momentum fall would have been even higher if the UPA lost. Now the UPA loses we do not have much to lose we have just lost three days of gains and if they do get, I do not think it will cross 15,000 that easily; it will just give us the spike of 500-800 points. But this is just my view on the subject.  

Q: What are you doing right now with technology?

A: I would concentrate only on the two leaders; maybe even Wipro but Wipro has perhaps got larger hedges on the forex market and therefore the numbers may not be as good as Infosys. I would invest in Infosys or TCS. 

Q: What’s your take on some of these numbers which came in - Maruti and BHEL yesterday?

A: Maruti Suzuki unfortunately has moved up substantially before the results and therefore any negative in the results would move it down. In terms of their car numbers; they have done well this quarter and margins are lower and that’s expecting considering steel prices have gone up so much and next quarter if we take what Mr. Muthuraman (Tata Steel Managing Director B Muthuraman) said in his speech that they are Rs 15,000 lower than global prices and July was the last month; they had to keep up with the steel embargo in their price; one might see steel price hikes coming again. So given that margins will remain under pressure and that’s what the company has said.

BHEL; considering the fall in price of BHEL have made lot of confidence back in terms of what the engineering companies can do this year. It’s not going to be as good as what one had expected but neither is the share price. So I remain cautiously positive on engineering.

Q: When we stepped into earnings, the general sentiment was to lean towards technology or pharmaceuticals or even FMCG to an extent, what would you buy now from the whole pharma basket?

A: In pharma, I would say that product wise and markets wise I do not have as good an understanding as perhaps I should have. But I think I would buy a Cipla because last year they had a very bad year, this year there is a turnaround in Cipla. Also after seeing Ranbaxy I think that perhaps if not this year at some point of time we will have another Ranbaxy coming from Cipla in terms of finding a Daiichi Sankyo. So Cipla to me makes a very good investment call at these levels.

Q: There is general disbelief and skepticism about any upmove and probably deservedly so, what are the odds that the market surprises this kind of skepticism with a rally, which is bigger in proportion than what everybody is willing to give it today?

A: When the market was around 13,800, I felt that we have touched a good bottom mainly because of couple of reasons like we had fallen substantially in a short period of time and oil had moved up to USD 135/bbl and I thought maybe oil will come down and the earning season will give us some respite. But thereafter oil has gone up to USD 145/bbl in a very strong fashion and just come down to USD 138/bbl. For us to truly say that we are going to see a market, which will give us a positive bounce and a positive feeling, I think we have to really see a breakdown in oil. If that is not going to happen, I think irrespective of what happens, we are going to remain where we are in terms of small volatility, some days we will see some good news coming from the government and that will move the market up again. Again there will be some bad news from United States and move the market down. It is going to be a dull period until oil breaks down.