Mkts to see pull back in 8-12 months: Mirae AMC
Published on Wed, Jul 02 at 10:48 , Updated at Thu, Jul 03 at 16:12
Source : CNBC-TV18
| ads by google |
“Aversion for funds with single country focus and regional or multi country fund to gain preference.” There is pressure building up for long-only funds, Ghosh said. He feels that there is a valid concern about The valuations look attractive and a fair amount of sector rotation will be seen this year, Ghosh said. Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Arindam Ghosh:
Q: What is your sense of where things might be headed in a slightly more near-term or even medium-term? A: The markets are currently gripped by irrational panic and this is in direct contrast to the kind of irrational exuberance that we have seen about six months back. The feeling at that time was that nothing could possibly go wrong in six months. Hence we are in a situation where it seems nothing can possibly go right. But having said that, we believe that over a one-year perspective the risk reward definitely looks favourable. If you look at MSCI-India, it has fallen by about 42% as compared to MSCI-Asia, which has come up by about 18%. So from hereon, whilst in a short-term we would have to really live with the worries around crude, inflation, deficits and margin compression and once all this is out of our way which could probably happen or starting to happen towards from eight months to twelve months period and thereafter, we would get to see some kind of a recovery starting to take shape of course - a pace of recovery would not be an accelerated one. Q: How about the global liquidity situation now? Is all that talk of hedge funds facing huge redemptions going belly-up etc true? Do you expect to see more damage or outflows from that side? A: There has been some amount of build-up of pressure for long-only funds. If you look at recent investor behaviour, there is a certain sense of aversion for a single country exposure and probably that is where we may see a slight run starting to happen. But on a regional perspective or multi-regional perspective, investors would continue to stay invested and take a longer-term view. Q: Do you expect retail to panic now with the mutual fund holdings or it will not come to that? It has not happened so far but do you expect this market to bottom out without that happening? A: I do not anticipate that because we have seen the retail investors now starting to increasingly take the preferred route of systematic investment. That clearly is a sign of investors turning much more mature and savvy. In terms of direct participation, yes there is a definite sense of disillusionment and there is a lot of panic. It is just a matter of time before we get to see that confidence levels starting to kick back and that I guess would happen with probably from the second half of the year once we see the recovery starting to kick back in US and that would have a trickle effect into other parts of the world of course with a certain amount of lag. Q: There has been a broader definition of retail as well though for a large part, e also saw money interest coming in from the Far East from markets like Korea and Japan, largely from the retail investor community. What is the sentiment over there because in dollar terms, this market is perhaps the worst performer, second to China? A: There is a lot of valid concern around the performance of India in the short-term and this has been emanating from across Asia and whether it is Japanese, Hong Kong, Korean or elsewhere, investors we are getting to see a lot of concern, which has been building up around the short-term performance of India. The concerns around inflation, interest rates and the political situation in India have been worrying investor. So they have not started to take the money off the table. That has not started to happen. But there are concerns and therefore there is a lot of serious explanation, which everybody would now have to get into. Q: Do you think this will pass as a cyclical bear phase, which is the consensus opinion right now - that it is a bearish phase but cyclical in nature or there is a risk of-even an outside risk- that this is something slightly bigger than that given our macro environment and how swiftly it has worsened? Could this turn out to be a bit more of a structural kind of bear phase? A: If we have to compare India and China, the way the Chinese markets have fallen India had a bit of catching up to do. Currently with the markets having come off significantly, we believe that we are somewhere close to where the bottom could be though markets are going to remain volatile. So it is going to be a phenomenon, which probably is going to last for eight months to twelve months period. Thereafter we would get to see a pullback starting to happen in the market with current levels at about 13,000-13,500 levels and with markets trading at about 13 times, if you take into account the embedded value then it is ten times. So clearly the valuations are kind of extremely attractive and so it is just a matter of time before we see renewed interest and re-pricing of risk starting to happen for emerging market and for India as well. Q: We are going to get into earnings very soon, at this point what sector would you increase exposure most to? A: We have seen a fair amount of sector rotation from the beginning of this calendar year; of course in the last month or so it has been a bit subdued. People have been trying to take cover under healthcare, IT and couple of other sectors like FMCG, which has been the favoured sector to take shelter under the market conditions. Having said that, the interest rate sensitive sectors are all going to stay under pressure for a period of eight months to one year, at least. For more Mutual Fund Interviews click here |
Messages on MF Investment Help
Other comments
to invest around 1 lakh and start sip
Dear Guest, Investment in Following Funds may be Considered. ICICI INFRA. DWS Investment Opportunity IDFC P...
in MF Investment Help - pcspune at 08-Sep-08 06:36
I have sips of reliance equity opp,fra
Dear Live wire, Performance of HDFC Growth & Reliance Growth continues to be VERY GOOD & one should consider Inv...
in MF Investment Help - pcspune at 08-Sep-08 06:12
Rate this article
More on Mutual Funds
News
05-09 Sharp sell off in MF NAVs as mkts slaughtered
05-09 MF NAVs end with negative returns
Investing Trends
08-09 Reliance MF bets on auto, chemical, engg
05-09 SBI Magnum Global picks banking, auto; sells metal, cement
Expert Advice
Chat
Ramesh Damani
Member BSE ,
(09 Sep- 16:00hrs)
What's good investment now?
Poll
Newsletter
Keep in touch with News day & night. Subscribe to:
Mobile Services
Get news on the move SMS to 52622
- SMS M for Market News
- SMS B for Latest Business News
- SMS S (stock name) for latest news




Offline







