A day prior to the Budget, the market has seen a run up with a bit of a twist; forget a pre-Budget rally, we are 1250 points down from the February 9 peak. In the run up to the big day, this time around the Nifty lost 350 points, while the midcap Index was down about 7% in broadly two-and-a-half weeks in the run-up to the Budget. How does it set things up? What are the expectations from a market perspective and can there be a turnaround after its announcement?
Samir Arora, Fund Manger at Helios Capital, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, N Jayakumar Managing Director of Prime Securities, Ramesh Damani and Ashok Wadhwa of Ambit comment on the same and more.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Investor & Trader says that everything depends on the Budget, since a fair bit of apprehension is already present due to political upheaval in states like Punjab. This Budget may see excise duty reduced and the rules for the FIIs to invest in India may be erased.
Ramesh Damani, Member, BSE
hopes that the Budget will be good and the markets will respond accordingly. Markets may move sideways for 6-8 months and tax rates would be cut.
Ashok Wadhwa, CEO & Managing Partner, Ambit RSM says that there is room for excise reduction which will be positive for the markets. He feels that corporate tax might also be reduced this Budget and service tax is expected to be widened. A good tax Budget in expected in the overall but there is few concerns like the expected hike in STT and the treaty abuse. Though STT can become an avenue for more government income Wadhwa hopes that it will not be erased.
N Jayakumar, MD, Prime Securities feels that March has always been a difficult month. He believes that markets need to have shakeouts in order to reach new highs.12500-13000 is the bottom line on the valuations. Tax cuts and excise are what this Budget will bring. Regarding STT Jay Kumar feels that the FM may be tempted to increase it but capital gains tax has far more direct impact, he adds.
Samir Arora, Fund Manger, Helios Capital on the other hand feels that a correction in the market was very needed and could have happened before and after the fall.
URBANEYE