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By Haresh Soneji, Research Analyst, CNBC-TV18
"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield"
- Warren Buffett
The first set of numbers from India Inc. for the Mar ’08 quarter seems to suggest that India Inc. is doing well. The set of 359 companies ex-oil, financials and trading that have declared their numbers suggest so. Sales are up 20% y-o-y (Mar ’08 v/s Mar ’07) and the adjusted profit after tax (APAT) is up 17% for the same period. This has provided the much needed boost to the Indian equity market. The bulls are back, sentiments are improving and small retail investors are participating.
|
359 cos ex oil & financials & trading | |||
|
|
08-Mar |
07-Mar |
% Chg |
|
|
Rs cr |
Rs cr |
|
|
Net Sales |
143,305 |
119,337 |
20% |
|
Other Income |
3,493 |
2,836 |
23% |
|
Extraordinary income |
735 |
521 |
41% |
|
Materials |
73,038 |
62,804 |
16% |
|
Salaries & Wages |
11,368 |
11,338 |
0% |
|
Interest Exp |
2,062 |
1,368 |
51% |
|
Dep |
4,973 |
4,112 |
21% |
|
Tax |
4,517 |
4,077 |
11% |
|
PBDIT |
30,724 |
25,638 |
20% |
|
PBT |
23,689 |
20,159 |
18% |
|
PAT |
18,630 |
15,739 |
18% |
|
APAT |
15,137 |
12,903 |
17% |
|
Source: CNBC TV18 Analysis, CMIE | |||
The devil clearly lies in the detail. For starters look at the interest costs – up 51% y-o-y in the above table. Financing seriously has moved up. Also, as interest rates don’t seem likely to cool from these levels, India Inc. will have to live in increased costs world. Considering, RBIs latest stand in the Credit & Monetary policy, borrowing certainly is most likely to get tougher. The 25 bps (100bps = 1%) CRR hike will make cash expensive and banks may raise rates. The CRR hike will cut M3 (money supply) by Rs 9,000 cr odd. A no growth in salaries and wages indicates concerns over cutting costs. A 20% increase in depreciation and a higher interest cost seem to suggest that capex plans are on track.
Having said that, earnings break up of large companies and the rest gives a better picture. Things don’t seem to be as hunky dory. Take a look at the table where aggregates of large cap companies are compared with the aggregates of small and mid cap companies.
|
Large caps | |||
|
185 cos ex oil & financials & trading | |||
|
|
08-Mar |
07-Mar |
% Change |
|
|
Rs cr |
Rs cr |
|
|
Net Sales |
131,501 |
109,547 |
20% |
|
Other Income |
2,902 |
2,549 |
14% |
|
Extraordinary income |
494 |
474 |
4% |
|
Materials |
67,707 |
58,507 |
16% |
|
Salaries & Wages |
10,696 |
10,772 |
-1% |
|
Interest Exp |
1,867 |
1,215 |
54% |
|
Dep |
4,679 |
3,874 |
21% |
|
Tax |
3,817 |
3,407 |
12% |
|
PBDIT |
27,323 |
22,780 |
20% |
|
PBT |
20,776 |
17,691 |
17% |
|
PAT |
16,629 |
13,961 |
19% |
|
APAT |
13,727 |
11,413 |
20% |
|
Source: CNBC TV18 Analysis, CMIE | |||
|
Small and mid caps | |||
|
174 cos ex oil & financials & trading | |||
|
|
08-Mar |
07-Mar |
% Change |
|
|
Rs cr |
Rs cr |
|
|
Net Sales |
11,804 |
9,790 |
21% |
|
Other Income |
591 |
287 |
106% |
|
Extraordinary income |
241 |
47 |
412% |
|
Materials |
5,331 |
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