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Moneycontrol India :: News :: Q4 results give more steam to bull run :: :: MARKET OUTLOOK :: Haresh Soneji
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Q4 results give more steam to bull run
2008-04-30 14:29:36 Source : CNBC-TV18
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By Haresh Soneji, Research Analyst, CNBC-TV18

"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield"

- Warren Buffett

The first set of numbers from India Inc. for the Mar ’08 quarter seems to suggest that India Inc. is doing well. The set of 359 companies ex-oil, financials and trading that have declared their numbers suggest so. Sales are up 20% y-o-y (Mar ’08 v/s Mar ’07) and the adjusted profit after tax (APAT) is up 17% for the same period. This has provided the much needed boost to the Indian equity market. The bulls are back, sentiments are improving and small retail investors are participating.

 

 

359 cos ex oil & financials & trading

 

08-Mar

07-Mar

% Chg

 

Rs cr

Rs cr

 

Net Sales

143,305

119,337

20%

Other Income

3,493

2,836

23%

Extraordinary income

735

521

41%

Materials

73,038

62,804

16%

Salaries & Wages

11,368

11,338

0%

Interest Exp

2,062

1,368

51%

Dep

4,973

4,112

21%

Tax

4,517

4,077

11%

PBDIT

30,724

25,638

20%

PBT

23,689

20,159

18%

PAT

18,630

15,739

18%

APAT

15,137

12,903

17%

Source: CNBC TV18 Analysis, CMIE

 

The devil clearly lies in the detail. For starters look at the interest costs – up 51% y-o-y in the above table. Financing seriously has moved up. Also, as interest rates don’t seem likely to cool from these levels, India Inc. will have to live in increased costs world. Considering, RBIs latest stand in the Credit & Monetary policy, borrowing certainly is most likely to get tougher. The 25 bps (100bps = 1%) CRR hike will make cash expensive and banks may raise rates. The CRR hike will cut M3 (money supply) by Rs 9,000 cr odd. A no growth in salaries and wages indicates concerns over cutting costs. A 20% increase in depreciation and a higher interest cost seem to suggest that capex plans are on track.

 

Having said that, earnings break up of large companies and the rest gives a better picture. Things don’t seem to be as hunky dory. Take a look at the table where aggregates of large cap companies are compared with the aggregates of small and mid cap companies.

 

 

Large caps

185 cos ex oil & financials & trading

 

08-Mar

07-Mar

% Change

 

Rs cr

Rs cr

 

Net Sales

131,501

109,547

20%

Other Income

2,902

2,549

14%

Extraordinary income

494

474

4%

Materials

67,707

58,507

16%

Salaries & Wages

10,696

10,772

-1%

Interest Exp

1,867

1,215

54%

Dep

4,679

3,874

21%

Tax

3,817

3,407

12%

PBDIT

27,323

22,780

20%

PBT

20,776

17,691

17%

PAT

16,629

13,961

19%

APAT

13,727

11,413

20%

Source: CNBC TV18 Analysis, CMIE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Small and mid caps

174 cos ex oil & financials & trading

 

08-Mar

07-Mar

% Change

 

Rs cr

Rs cr

 

Net Sales

11,804

9,790

21%

Other Income

591

287

106%

Extraordinary income

241

47

412%

Materials

5,331