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The government is coming out with its ambitious 11th 5 year plan to beef up capacity additions in the power sector to 78,577 MW, the sector is catching investor's eye. Over the last few days lot of money is flowing into utility stocks. Stocks like Reliance Energy and NTPC have beefed up gains by 24% and 16% respectively.
The Central Electricity Authority has estimated the need for creating additional capacity of 1,00,000 MW by 2012. A capacity addition of 41,110 MW comprising 14,393 MW hydro, 25,417 MW thermal and 1,300 MW nuclear power has been fixed for the Tenth Five Year Plan. An additional capacity of 3,100 MW is expected to come from renewable sources of energy. The contribution of State sector and private sector during Tenth Plan has been fixed at 11,157 MW and 7,121 MW respectively. This is approximately 45% of total capacity addition envisaged.
As per the 17th Electric Power Survey Report, India would have a peak electricity demand of 1,52,746 MW at power station bus bars of utility systems by 2011-12 which is more than double of 75,756 MW for 2003-04. thus the country’s annual energy consumption under utility systems has been estimated at 7,55,847 MUs for 2011-12 against 3,62,799 Million Units in 2003-04.
The other main points of the 17th Electric Power Survey Report projections are:
· The all India peak load is projected to increase at a compounded annual growth rate of 9.16% between the base year 2003-04 to 2011-12 as compared to 5.29% growth rate in the past.
· The All India electricity consumption is projected to increase at a compounded annual growth rate of 9.6% between the base year 2003-04 to 2011-12 as compared to past growth at 3.43%.
· For the first time, electricity consumption estimates have been sub-divided into the rural-urban sector.
· The electricity consumption of the industrial sector is projected to rise by a compounded annual growth rate of 9.32% by the year 2011-12.
· For irrigation sector, the CAGR is projected to be 7.3% by 2011-12.
Some of the long term measures taken by the Government to increase availability of power include:
· Generation capacity of 78,577 MW proposed to be added in XI Plan. Of this, 2265 MW has been commissioned as on 31.8.2007, while 51,680 MW is under execution.
- Creation of a National Grid for optimum utilization of generation capacity and inter-regional transfer of power.
- 50,000 MW hydro initiative has been launched for development of the hydro sector.
- Identification of a shelf of thermal projects aggregating over 1,00,000 MW.
- Power Finance Corporation and Rural Electrification Corporation have mobilized themselves to see that good generation projects are not hampered due to lack of funds.
- Rigorous monitoring of capacity addition of the on-going generation projects.
- Implementation of Ultra Mega Power Projects of 4000 MW each.
This information was given by the Union Power Minister Shri Sushilkumar Shinde in a written reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha.
Thus with wide scope in power generation sector lying ahead companies like Reliance energy, Tata power and NTPC are all gearing up to make the most of it by increasing the power generating capacity.
Considering the growth story many private players have diversified into the power trading business from completely unrelated businesses.
Players that have got licences, besides established ones such as PTC India, NTPC, Tata Power and Reliance Energy, include real estate firm DLF, Instinct Advertising and Marketing Ltd, trading firms Adani Enterprises and state-owned MMTC Ltd, and Visa Power Ltd. Others with inter-state licences include Lanco Electric, Vinergy International, Chhattisgarh Electricity Company, Jindal Steel and Power, K.C. Thapar and Bros. and JSW Power Trading. GMR Energy is the only player to have surrendered its licence, according to Government data.
Many of the power generating stocks performed well in the market giving considerable returns to the investors.
Here is the chart showing returns given by stocks like Reliance Energy, Tata Power and NTPC. These stocks have yielded 85%, 35% and 48% respectively in one-year.
|
Reliance Energy | ||||
|
Period |
Price |
Latest Price |
Gain/Loss |
% Gain/Loss |
|
3-Days |
776.95 |
860.4 |
83.45 |
10.74 |
|
5-Days |
766.75 |
860.4 |
93.65 |
12.21 |
|
7-Days |
782.15 |
860.4 |
78.25 |
10 |
|
15-Days |
692 |
860.4 |
168.4 |
24.34 |
|
1-Month |
742.55 |
860.4 |
117.85 |
15.87 |
|
3-Month |
550.55 |
860.4 |
309.85 |
56.28 |
|
6-Month |
470.05 |
860.4 |
390.35 |
83.04 |
|
9-Month |
553.25 |
860.4 |
307.15 |
55.52 |
|
1-Year |
464.75 |
860.4 |
395.65 |
85.13 |
|
Tata power | ||||
|
Period |
Price |
Latest Price |
Gain/Loss |
% Gain/Loss |
|
3-Days |
684.5 |
728.8 |
44.3 |
6.47 |
|
5-Days |
681.25 |
728.8 |
47.55 |
6.98 |
|
7-Days |
685.45 |
728.8 |
43.35 |
6.32 |
|
15-Days |
681 |
728.8 |
47.8 |
7.02 |
|
1-Month |
670.6 |
728.8 |
58.2 |
8.68 |
|
3-Month |
604.15 |
728.8 |
124.65 |
20.63 |
|
6-Month |
507.25 |
728.8 |
221.55 |
43.68 |
|
9-Month |
593.1 |
728.8 |
135.7 |
22.88 |
|
1-Year |
536.85 |
728.8 |
191.95 |
35.75 |
|
NTPC | ||||
|
Period |
Price |
Latest Price |
Gain/Loss |
% Gain/Loss |
|
3-Days |
185.35 |
186 |
0.65 |
0.35 |
|
5-Days |
166.2 |
186 |
19.8 |
11.91 |
|
7-Days |
165.15 |
186 |
||