Will Nifty stay above 4000 next week?

It is always going to be a challenge to follow up that 200-point rally that we had on the Sensex yesterday and the backdrop was not too bad in terms of Asian when we came into trade this morning. In fact most of those markets are good.

US cues were up in the green by quite a margin that they actually closed very well also for themselves. Talking of Asia at this point of time you can see that those markets have actually closed anywhere between 0.5-1% up for themselves. The Sensex in the backdrop of all this had its moments; it swung over 200 points in today’s close to about 40 odd points at the end of the day as you can see over there. The Nifty as well closed above 56 points- what the overall oscillation was and we have closed with nothing spectacular in terms to reports for gainers in the Nifty just marginally in the positive territory you could see just about one point or thereabouts.

The broader market that has been the concerned point for the better part of the week expect yesterday and that especially did not look too good. Just about a 0.5% up as a result of which the advance-decline was nothing positive to report on today. But the turnover has been not too bad - reported about Rs 44,5,000 crore, which has been alright. We have been doing between 45-50 for the better part of this series. Specifically in terms of that last hour as we observe for 4-5 days is what’s happening with that F&O discount, nothing larger than what we have seen today. It’s been a 43 point discount and a lot of heavyweights are actually on the losing side of this - NTPC, Reliance, Petronet LNG, ONGC - these are frontline stocks I think short positions open up.

Unwinding in Satyam, India Cements, Tata Steel - these are you flagship technology and metal representative. So that is not looking too good. Something on the positive side is midcaps in terms of GMR and Oswal seeing some fresh long positions and the odd covering in stocks like Bombay Rayon and midcap banks like Vijaya and Union but largely it is the short positions that are opening up in a lot of the frontline counters. Suzlon and Tata Power led it from the front today in terms of winners and BHEL and L&T from the capital goods space were looking very good. In fact very good percentage moves for all of these four stocks.

In addition to that SAIL and HDFC Bank, GSK Pharma had a very good day for themselves as well. Those are the winners on the Nifty. Tata Motors, SBI and Maruti as well were not doing too badly. In fact SBI is having a good set of advance tax numbers - some of the better ones that have reported till now. Tata Steel, HDFC, Hindalco and Grasim were the laggards in trade today. In fact the metal pack as a whole was looking relatively weak and these stocks correcting anywhere between 1-2.5% for themselves. Reliance, Reliance Petroleum Limited, Dabur, Sun Pharmaceuticals were some of the other stocks that were corrected. Technology as a pack - the rupee gained about Re 0.14 from the high of about Rs 41 that it hit, to about Rs 40.86 and all the frontline tech stocks took it hard on the chin between 0.5-2% down from all of those counters. But the midcap space saw some activity in registering that 0.5% gain. Some of those recent listings Bhagwati and Aarti Drugs, which has been on the tear - it has been up nearly about 60%, United Phosphorus, Insecticides India, Dewan Housing were some of the other gainers, Mysore Cement, PTC, Zee News were some of the other interesting stocks that actually stood out in trade today.

But a few stocks were on the losing side like Dish TV and Nitin Fire Protection. This stock, Nitin Fire Protection, has been running away after its listing and Hexaware from the midcap technology pack as well has been on the slightly softer side in trade today. As we said DLF is done and dusted, inflation second week in a row has come in under 5% and ofcourse advance tax would be out pretty much over the weekend.

So how do we take it forward from here? We will see next week, because global cues will be very important to see. Will the weekend sustain above that 4000-mark on the Nifty and 14,000 on the Sensex?