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(Interview Transcript)
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Technical Analyst Ashwani Gujral said, "In 2006 markets bounced back from 2,600 up to 3,200 and then gave back 50% of that and consolidated around 2,900."
So in this kind of a market, it’s quite normal for the market to give back 50% of its gain and from 4,900 again the market will become well poised and finally achieve its target above 5,500-5,600. Since we are also looking for a time wise correction, this up and down move should be expected and we could head up to 4,900 before we reverse.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Ashwani Gujral:
Q: Technically is that the view that we could seek lower levels and do you think important supports would hold on the Nifty or is it looking like we could go lower?
A: It’s always useful to look at history. In 2006 we bounced back from 2,600 up to 3,200 and then we gave back 50% of that and consolidated around 2,900. If one takes this rally from 4,500 to about 5,300; the 50% replacement is around 4,900. That also coincides with the long-term trend line which gave support at 4,500 that’s risen up to 4,900. So in this kind of a market it’s quite normal for the market to give back 50% of its gain and from 4,900 again the market become well poised and finally achieves its target above 5,500-5,600.
Since we are also looking for a time wise correction this kind of up and down move should be expected and we could head up to 4,900 before we reverse.
Q: How are the banks looking yesterday was a bad day across the board for those banks?
A: Banks are still in a sort of range. For private banking the range has been defined ICICI Bank around Rs 740-950, HDFC Bank again support around Rs 1,400 and you can ride it upto Rs 1,650.
PSU banking is particularly weak. State Bank of India support is around Rs 1,650 and upside is around Rs 1,850-1,900. So the financials are not showing strength they had their pullback rally and now they are falling back again. So banks could be range bound, smaller banks they moved UCO Bank. But again it is falling back to about Rs 4,500, which is the support. People have to get used to playing these ranges.
Even on textile we get these 6-7% moves. But broadly if you see for the last many months they have been in the same range Arvind Mills around Rs 50 is a support you can ride it upto Rs 65, Alok Industries Rs 60 is a support ride it upto Rs 75, so nothing exciting there.
Q: What about Cairn
A: Cairn India is the strongest stock in the market and we have been recommending it. I think Rs 240 is a good support the stock is trading at new highs you could easily see levels of Rs 300 and 360 if USD 200/bbl on oil is correct and probably Cairn
Q: Where are the supports for Unitech and DLF?
A: Unitech has good support around Rs 285-290 and it is possible that those supports hold up because the stocks have fallen quite a bit and that is about a 50% retracement of the entire rally that we had in real estate.
DLF is probably weaker than Unitech right now and you could see levels of Rs 600-625 acting as support before you can trade it up back to Rs 750. These stocks will be more ranging in nature. As a trader you would rather be in an oil and gas stock than in a real estate or banking stocks trying to take 3-5%.
Disclosure:
It is safe to assume that my clients & I may have an interest in the stocks/sectors discussed.
More to come...
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- Jul 25, 16:01
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