Go long if Nifty Fut trades above 4,016: Rajat Bose

Q: What about the sugar stocks Balrampur Chini and Triveni Engineering not strictly a sugar stock but it’s being under a lot of pressure?

A: These stocks as of now they are not showing any encouraging signs as such. Triveni Engineering got hammered and so has been the whole of the sugar pack but Balrampur Chini will attract a lot of buying when it comes to the mid 70s. So say another 10% you will see a lot of buying coming into that.

Triveni Engineering is slightly wobbly, maybe Renuka Sugars might attract some buying today. They are not suggesting that one should actually go and buy them but definitely if Balrampur Chini comes around Rs 75, I would be a buyer.

Q: What do you expect to see from Reliance in the July series; sub Rs 2,000 again or more than Rs 2,400?

A: I have planned for a trade where suppose if there is panic in the market and by any chance Reliance comes down close to about Rs 2,000 levels odd then I would stake Rs 50 of mine and putting a stop below Rs 1,950 and at least the minimum bounce back in that case would be 2,120 and if it stays above Rs 2,120 then the target from a technical perspective becomes Rs 2,250 to about rs 2,300. I am not expecting Rs 2,400 but at least that kind of bounce would be there and in my opinion Reliance would signal the market recovery.   

Q: What do you see on the charts of Unitech and DLF?

A: Unitech is trading at Rs 177; if it comes around Rs 172-169 and takes supports then that support will be a potential support area today. If it bounces back from those levels maybe then one might consider buying into that but otherwise it is better avoided.

I did not expect DLF to sustain below Rs 440; since it is sustaining below Rs 440 it might test Rs 415 to about Rs 402 range. So, when it comes to that range and if it shows stability and any signal for a bounce back then one might consider going long in DLF. But at these levels there are no trades and especially I would avoid shorting these stocks because they have already accumulated quite a number of short positions.      

Q: Technically have you had a look at some of the smaller stocks like IVR Prime  of Indiabulls Real Estate?

A: I have looked at Sobha Developers and this stock is actually looking weak in fact it can go down much further to about Rs 283-275 that can happen in the short-term and looking at stocks like Indiabulls Real Estate or Peninsula Land  even these stocks are showing some weakness.

I would say the whole real estate pack is trending down so one needs to see where the trend actually comes to an end or at least shows a pullback rally only then something can be thought about them. But for now I would suggest that if one is aggressive enough then one can initiate short positions in weaker counters like Sobha Developers.      

Disclosure:

It is safe to assume that my clients & I may have an investment interest in the stocks/sectors discussed.