go to moneycontrol.com
Quote 
NAV 
News 
Messages  
Opinions 
Notices 
[+] SHOW
Moneycontrol India :: News :: See oil at $135/bbl in near term: Societe Generale :: :: FII View :: NULL
You are here : Moneycontrol » Markets Home » Fii View
See oil at $135/bbl in near term: Societe Generale
2008-05-09 15:26:51 Source : IMW/CNBC-TV18
                                                (Interview Transcript)
Email     Print Version      Watch Video    
ads by google

Michael Whittner, Global Head Oil Research, Societe Generale desfinitely sees an upside in oil in near term. "I am not too sure about USD 200 in near-term. But for sure, it will hit USD 135/bbl before we go back USD 115/bbl, for example," he told CNBC-TV18.

 

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Michael Whittner:

 

Q: One analyst told us this morning it’s going to USD 138; Goldman Sachs is saying USD 200. What do you think?

A: I think there is definitely more upside. At this point I cannot see any bearish factors there in the very near-term, the fundamentals are supportive of higher prices right now and in this, financial investor flows into oil are also supportive of higher prices. I am not too sure about USD 200 in near-term but for sure, it will hit USD 135/bbl before we go back USD 115/bbl, for example.

 

Q: Just one more word on the flows  - are you getting the sense that a lot of money is getting rerouted to the crude in the past few days or is it the same amount of hot money chasing this commodity? 

 

A: The flows wax and wane on a day-to-day basis. We had a fairly broad and sustained surge on the investor flows over the long-term trend and this has not showed any signs of easing yet; the recent issues on the supply term in places like Nigeria and UK for instance. The dollar is doing what it’s going to do but also inflation expectations are as important.

 

Q: What do you think the dollar is going to do and a couple of analysts have made the point that the move in the dollar is not as spectacular as the move in crude. How much would you put down to what the currency has done to this commodity?

 

A: The dollar has played a big role. It is true in recent days and recent weeks that dollar relationship has eased little bit but it has been equally strong and equally as big; causing investor to hedge by going long over. There has been inflation expectation and I don’t think inflation expectation have backed off recently on the contrary.

 

Q: So for people who trade commodities, it would not be an advisable trade to think that crude has gone up too much and too soon and therefore one should short it that would be a risky trade in your eyes?

 

A: It’s risky to step out on the street from a speeding bus. I mean when the trend is so strong, I would say that it is risky to bet against and nothing is going to go up particularly at this pace forever. We will see some signs - that is going to ease and you would see maybe the shape of the curve start to weaken and may see refining margins start to become more mediocre; there are various signals out there to look at. But right now, it looks like we are going up for the time being.      

 

 

Hot keywords : NULL 
Related links:
View Comments                                                                          Post Message  
Rate this article
Related links
Ads by Google
Explore Moneycontrol
STOCKS
A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | Others
MUTUAL FUNDS
A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z  172.31.1.227
Copyright © e-Eighteen.com Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction of news articles, photos, videos or any other content in whole or in part in any form or medium without express written permission of moneycontrol.com is prohibited.