See oil at $135/bbl in near term: Societe Generale

Q: Just one more word on the flows  - are you getting the sense that a lot of money is getting rerouted to the crude in the past few days or is it the same amount of hot money chasing this commodity? 

A: The flows wax and wane on a day-to-day basis. We had a fairly broad and sustained surge on the investor flows over the long-term trend and this has not showed any signs of easing yet; the recent issues on the supply term in places like Nigeria and UK for instance. The dollar is doing what it’s going to do but also inflation expectations are as important.

Q: What do you think the dollar is going to do and a couple of analysts have made the point that the move in the dollar is not as spectacular as the move in crude. How much would you put down to what the currency has done to this commodity?

A: The dollar has played a big role. It is true in recent days and recent weeks that dollar relationship has eased little bit but it has been equally strong and equally as big; causing investor to hedge by going long over. There has been inflation expectation and I don’t think inflation expectation have backed off recently on the contrary.

Q: So for people who trade commodities, it would not be an advisable trade to think that crude has gone up too much and too soon and therefore one should short it that would be a risky trade in your eyes?

A: It’s risky to step out on the street from a speeding bus. I mean when the trend is so strong, I would say that it is risky to bet against and nothing is going to go up particularly at this pace forever. We will see some signs - that is going to ease and you would see maybe the shape of the curve start to weaken and may see refining margins start to become more mediocre; there are various signals out there to look at. But right now, it looks like we are going up for the time being.