India's growth may slip despite +ve GDP nos: MS
Published on Fri, May 30, 2008 at 11:20 , Updated at Mon, Jun 02, 2008 at 10:31
Source : CNBC-TV18
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The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth for financial year 2008 has been revised to 9% from 8.7% earlier. Manoj Pradhan, Analyst at Morgan Stanley said the Q4 GDP growth is positive, but India's growth may still slip. A strong growth story will give RBI more room to hike rates. He is concerned about sectors exposed to interest rates and capital flows. MS is more bearish than the consensus on FY09 GDP growth. Pradhan sees a global economic slowdown if oil goes up to USD 200 per barrel. He said investors are currently repricing their strategies globally. Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Manoj Pradhan:
Q: 8.8% GDP growth, not bad? A: Absolutely. Our team in India led by Chetan Ahya was expecting something slightly lower than that. This is an absolutely fantastic number for the Indian economy. What this does suggest though is that the markets will probably no doubt already be repricing and wondering what the RBIs next move will be. So far we have seen growth at the crossroads. This is a phase where India’s growth may slip slightly lower. That looks like a call that is destined to wait just a little bit longer. There is no doubt that there are headwinds to the Indian growth. I think it is going to come down just a little bit, probably during the second half of this year. This number no doubt certainly adds caution to that call. Overall that growth may not come down in line with our India team’s call. Q: Interesting you spoke about the RBI stance now. What do you think might put more pressure on them to tighten the policy going forward, now that growth is not slowing down alarmingly? A: If this is a beginning of the trend of a stronger than expected growth, then this is completely different scenario. Globally, this story is very interesting. If you look at the RBI's real interest rate, it is nearly at zero. This suggests that as far as the RBI connection to the growth story is concerned, they really haven’t put any kind of emphasis on inflation.
This is primarily because they have been worried about what is going to happen post their hikes they had made just a few years ago and what that is going to do to the growth story. If the growth story remains consistently strong, that would give them considerable room to stretch their arms and raise the interest rates a bit. Whether that actually happens is more a math for India specialists.
Q: Are you concerned about particular pockets when you were talking about GDP growth slackening off? A: I think the overall picture is going to be one where the interest sensitive and capital flows sectors are the ones that the India team is generally worried about. Going forward we see a global scenario that is likely to concern India.
The emerging market story that was so strong till December ’07 is no longer as robust now. These numbers certainly seem to add more credibility to India’s story, which is great news. As far as banks and large investors are concerned, there is still a significant amount of worry on their part. This de-leveraging story could affect regions like India. If you don’t see strong capital inflows, the story is more difficult to sustain. I am more worried about the overall picture. I don’t have much of a view on specific sectors because that is a call for our Indian economics team.
Q: We have been speaking with a lot of economists and there was significant scaling back of targets, 7% for the most conservative, 7.8-7.9% that kind of mark. At this point, what is Morgan Stanley working with in terms of full year growth and have you factored-in oil at USD 100/bbl plus? A: At this point Morgan Stanley is more bearish, though I wonder if those numbers are due for revision after this very strong GDP number that has come out. But we are still looking at a more bearish story than consensus is concerned. Oil is going to be one of the main determinants of what happens to global growth and definitely what happens to the India growth. Oil is about, USD 125 and there is talk in our team of oil moving up to USD 150. Forecasting oil prices though is an extremely dangerous game. The story as far as oil is concerned has been a mixed story. Six months ago, a lot of people would have agreed that the oil price story is more led by demand. So, there is no need for concern. Economies such as India and China are growing at an incredible pace and the demand for oil is extremely strong. But recently what has happened is that the supply has not managed to keep up with the growing demand, which suggests that there are supply outages as well. How these will play out in the short-term, is extremely difficult to tell. But if oil persists at USD 125-150 or moves up to USD 200, I don’t see any way in which the global economy can keep growing at the rate it is. Something has got to give and I think it is going to be the global economy that will slow down along with countries like India that are dependent oil prices. |
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