Any rally to be good opportunity to sell: Marc Faber

Investment Guru Marc Faber said people don't have any idea where the market will bottom. "However, the market can rally, but any rallies from here will be very good opportunities to sell into."

The Sensex can rally up to 18,000-19,000 while the US S&P can go to 1,400-1,450, he said. Faber feels there is two opposing forces in the markets now and hence will prefer to remain out of it.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Marc Faber:

Q: Interesting couple of days and people are beginning to talk about a bottom in global equity markets, do you think the moves of the last couple of days signal any such bottom?

A: I love that people talk about the bottom, because they have no idea. When so many analysts and economists talk about a bottom, for sure there is not going to be a bottom. I agree that the market can rally somewhat because there are large short positions outstanding. In the case of India, when the index started to rise from 3,000 in 2003 and then went to 21,000, all these people missed it and could have made seven times the money. Now, when the market has dropped 20-30%, I think it is the bargain of the century. I love this rally and I think it will lead to a great selling opportunity.

Q: How much more would you give this rally globally and in India then?

A: In India, we can go to like 18,000-19,000. The US is going to outperform other markets. On the S&P, we were at 1270,, which was the low. Now, we can go maybe to 1,400-1,450. But I doubt we will make a new high.

Q: What is making you circumspect about this rally and why do you think it will get sold into? By when do you think this rally might break once again for more downside?

A: Basically, we have statistical evidence from different studies that high volatility leads to low returns for investors, because investors get caught either on the short side or the long side or the wrong stock or the wrong sector and so forth.

Let’s say you are in wartime and there are two opposing armies. In the case of financial markets, you have the Fed that is basically printing money and cutting interest rates to 2.25% and bailing-out investment banks in Wall Street, and on the other hand you have the private sector withdrawing credit, tightening lending standards, and the household sector in dire straits because of cost increases.

So, you have two opposing forces. The best is to stay out of it. I don’t do anything at the moment. If the markets become overbought, I would sell short. If they become very oversold, I would rather buy. But let’s say in general, the best is to quit the game, go on a holiday, and take a nice girlfriend along with you.