Rice surplus of 2-3 mn tonnes this fiscal: Comm Sec

By Vivian Fernandes and Abhijit Neogi, CNBC-TV18

The Commerce Secretary has said that the export target of USD 200 billion for this fiscal is on track. India could be left with rice surplus of two-three million tonne this fiscal. He also informed that there may be WTO mini-ministerial meeting in the first fortnight of July.

The rice exports may be eased by September-October. There is no plan to ease export ban on wheat and go fresh for wheat imports this fiscal, he added. According to him, the procurement position for rice and wheat is comfortable. He also said that there are no moves to ban maze exports.

It is good news for exporters of rice. The government says rice and wheat stocks are back in a comfort zone and hence the export ban on rice may be reviewed.

Amidst the gloom and doom of a possible double-digit inflation, there seems to be some good news for the inflation weary government. The government says rice and wheat production for the current fiscal is more than comfortable and so the government may consider easing the ban on rice exports later this year. This is also an indication that the government believes agricultural prices could further cool off in the next few months.

“We are very comfortable with rice. We are expecting a production of 94 million tonne this year. We could look at easing the rice ban somewhat in October-November this year,” said GK Pillai, Commerce Secretary.

In fact, rice procurement is set to outpace the total domestic demand this fiscal.

“Till September 30,when the rice season comes to an end, we are expecting a procurement of 275 lakh tonne, which is 25 lakh tonne more than last fiscal and more than the total rice demand in the country,” said Alok Sinha, Chairman, FCI.

Government estimates say that wheat procurement position is also quite comfortable, something which has led the GOM on agri commodities to decide against importing wheat in this fiscal.

Wheat procurement for the current year is expected to be a record 225 million tonne, more than double of the 111.27 lakh tonne of wheat procurement in the last fiscal

In fact, the GOM has directed FCI not to go for further hedging contracts this fiscal and transfer the USD 32 million of hedging gain to be adjusted against the food subsidy account.

“FCI will not float any import tenders this year. There is no need for importing wheat this year,” said GK Pillai, Commerce Secretary.

But the government still maintains it will not allow wheat exports. Tighter norms for exports have not forced the government to scale down its current export target of USD 200 billion this fiscal. The government is now hoping that monsoons are good this year, to beat down agri prices and help tame inflation in the latter half of the year.