By Sajeet Manghat, CNBC-TV18

The Indian crude oil basket is hovering around USD 116/bbl. It has risen from nearly USD 90-95/bbl levels at the beginning of January this year. So it’s been an impact of nearly USD 24/bbl. In May, the average price so far has been around USD112.10/bbl versus USD 105.77/bbl in April.

The industry revenue loss is estimated at around Rs 450 crore per versus Rs 340 crore per day in January 2008. On current prices, for FY09, the estimated OMC (oil and marketing companies) revenue loss is seen at Rs 180,000 crore.

If one compares this with FY08, the industry loss was around Rs 71,000 crore – this was on the back of nearly 11% appreciation in rupee. If one takes out the rupee appreciation, then the losses were around Rs 90, 000 crore. And now, rupee is also depreciating. So the impact is much more on the oil-marketing companies. The upstream companies will be impacted the most. Last time, they had the cushion of rupee appreciation.

The government’s share is seen at 49% in FY09, post the price hike and fiscal measures.

Indian Crude Basket

Avg Price                     $/bbl

FY08                            77

FY07                            62.46

FY06                            55.72

There are huge underrecoveries going on in oil:

Product            Rs/lt

Petrol                14.50

Diesel               20

LPG                  309

Kerosene           28

The government’s subsidy burden will remain at 57%.

(In %)                FY07                 FY08

Oil Bonds             49                     57

Upstream             42                     33

R&Ms                  10                     10

Pure Refiners        NIL                   NIL

Subsidy Sharing

                      (Rs Cr)  FY07        FY08

Oil Bonds            24100              40926

Upstream            20500              23900

R&Ms                 4800                 6100

Total                   49400               71800