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(Interview Transcript)
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Crude is at all time high and talk is of a super spike underway. Victor Shum, Senior VP, Purvin & Gertz, said the market is right now trading on momentum and there is a lot of bullish enthusiasm in markets. He explains, "In the near-term we are likely to see a lot of volatility due to investors' movements in and out of oil."
Also oil demand in the US will pick up in the summer time due to summer driving season. In the near-term USD 110/bbl remains a key support level.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Victor Shum:
Q: What has been driving this so hard and does it indeed seem that it is going to be USD 150/bbl before it scales back to USD 110-100/bbl?
A: I think the market is right now trading on momentum; there are no new events or new headlines driving oil to new record highs. The widely reported Goldman Sachs report yesterday about oil potentially striking USD 150/bbl or USD 200/bbl in the next 6-24 months has certainly added a lot of bullish enthusiasm through the markets.
Right now the market is trading on momentum and that points to some risk in oil market that we could have a pull back of some kind if investors exit oil in response to movements in US dollar for example.
But the way I look at is that in the near-term we are likely to see a lot of volatility due to investors movements in and out of oil. The fundamentals remain really unchanged and we are entering into a US summer driving season, even though demand may be lower this year in US due to the economic downturn but oil demand in the US will pick up in the summer time due to summer driving season.
One must not forget that there is also the hurricane season late summer and so there could be number of bullish factors coming up in next few months and so we could potentially see pricing higher even though right now it's really momentum driving the oil rally.
Q: How much of a scale back do you think we could see in crude prices and while the point about volatility is taken, are you seeing any signs at all that crude prices are peaking off?
A: These days, it’s not unusual to see a daily change of USD 4-5/bbl or even more. In the near-term USD 110/bbl remains a key support level. If pricing pulls back towards USD 110, some market participants might view that as a buying opportunity because the recent trends are on the upside and the bulls right now are in control of the markets.
I do expect pricing to stay strong and the near-term key support is USD 110/bbl. Longer-term, unless we see a sharp reduction in demand or a sharp increase in supply, pricing is likely to remain strong. Certainly in the near-term sharp changes in supply or demand are not expected.
So in the near-term, one can expect strong pricing with volatility laid on top of it due to investors coming in and out of oil reacting to short-term events or many other factors.
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