Avinash Raheja of Standard Chartered Bank says there is a good potential risk to nudge crude beyond USD 150/bbl mark, if there are any supply disruptions or collapse of the dollar. 

He added the base mark for crude is USD 100/bbl for 2008. He sees about 1.2 million barrels per day increase this year over last year.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exlusive interview with Avinash Raja

Q: How do you see crude panning out at current levels. What do the trading calls looking like in terms of the next level of support or resistance?

A: As far as crude goes, USD 100/bbl mark is the base for 2008. The triggers that we have seen in the near term that could cause fluctuations in the prices of crude are going to be the supply disruptions that can be significant and a direction that the dollar will take.

Q: What are you looking at in slightly longer term, Goldman Sachs has called for a USD 150/bbl to USD 200/bbl, for a trader who is looking at one month or two months down the line, what does the scene look like for crude?

A: In the short term, there is a lot of data that is going to be moving around and investment flows are something that people are trying to grapple with. We are seeing that in the recent weeks the investment flows have kind of paired their long positions, so we are actually in a comfortable territory as far as investment flows are concerned. In the short term it’s anybody’s take but on the long term, the supply and demand situation continues to remain tight and USD 100/bbl does mark a bottom for it. There is a good potential risk to nudge crude beyond USD 150/bbl mark, if we see any supply disruptions or a collapse of the dollar.

Q: What do you think  about USD 123/bbl given the fact that a lot of rise in the commodity price has come in on speculative buying, how are you trading the commodity?

A: The speculative flow is of course the significant factor that is raising the prices up but in recent times it has come down as we can see from the CFTC data. The speculative flow can sustain as long as the fundamentals are justified. The real bed rock for the crude market right now is that the fundamentals remain pretty much the same as they have been for quite some time. We really aren’t seeing any negative numbers on demand and we still see positive numbers in growth on the global basis. We see about 1.2 million barrels per day increase in this year over last year. The issue still remains on the fundamental side as far as I can see.