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What next in Pakistan?

Published on Sat, Dec 29, 2007 at 12:24 , Updated at Mon, Dec 31, 2007 at 10:32
Source : CNBC-TV18

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Benazir's death has raised two important questions.. What happens next to the Pakistan People's Party and by corollary, to Pakistani politics? CNBC-TV18 tries finding some answers.

Benazir Bhutto is no more but many fear more blood will be shed now, through retaliatory assassinations - targeting politicians close to Pervez Musharraf, and through more attacks by emboldened jihadis.

Imran Khan, Leader, Tehreek-e-Insaf, said, “Terrorism is growing by the day - this year was the worst we've ever had. What new is he going to do? He’s not the solution to our problem - he is the problem. General Musharraf is like a red rag to a bull.”

The People's Party also faces an uncertain future - to keep the Bhutto cult alive, it may to turn to Benazir's husband for leadership ... but Asif Zardari lacks mass appeal .

Other candidates for the top job include Makhdoom Amin Fahim - he could well turn out to be Pakistan's Narasimha Rao  But Fahim lacks charisma, which Aitzaz Ahsan has in large doses. Ahsan, the prominent leader of the lawyers' movement, was jailed after emergency was imposed and remains under house arrest.

 G Parthasarthy, Ex-envoy to Pakistan, said, “Fahim may be the interim leader. But very soon, his leadership will be challenged by rising leaders in Punjab like Aitzaz Ahsan. The PPP will have a split in its ranks if not spilt totally.”

The future looks even more bleak for the President - already blamed by almost all major players in Pakistani politics for Benazir's murder, Pervez Musharraf's days, many say, are now numbered.

K Subrahmanyam, Strategic Analyst, says, “He will be dumped by both the US and the Pakistani Army - the possibility of this happening is reasonably high.”

Musharraf clearly is in an unenviable position.  If he holds elections, they will not be credible. If he postpones them, he will be blamed. That’s if he manages to hang on to his throne. So where does he lead Pakistan from here?

To a short spell of martial law and a farcical election a few months down the line? Or to a prolonged and bloody crackdown against jihadis, along with genuine democracy?

Nadeem Malik, CNBC Pakistan said, “Generally there is an expectation that the election process will be delayed for 6-8 weeks - that is the most likely scenario that is expected right now. I don’t see any possibility at this stage unless there is there is direct contact between Pervez Musharaf and the mainstream political parties, including Nawaz Sharif and the party of Benazir Bhutto, which is Pakistan Peoples Party.”

 

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