UPA alliance set to break-up: Rajdeep Sardesai

Rajdeep Sardesai, Editor-in-Chief, CNN-IBN said it is almost certain now that the UPA and Left are heading for a breakup and it is only a question of time now.

“Both sides at the moment are reluctant to go in for elections because of the economic situation. That might put pressure to further buy time and push this to September or October.”

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Rajdeep Sardesai:

Q: Is this clearly a time buying tactic?

A: Absolutely. Both sides are engaged in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation. It is clear that neither side wants to blink just yet. Therefore, the only way out was to buy some more time.

The question is how much more time can this government really buy. That is based on a political calculation as to when the elections will now take place. So, it is less about the deal now and more about the calendar for elections. If elections take place in November-December, the confrontation has been deferred only for a month at best. If elections take place in March-April, the confrontation is more likely in September-October.

Either way, it is almost certain now that the UPA and Left are heading for a breakup. It is only a question of time now.

Q: How much sanctity is there to the G8 summit that the Prime Minister is leaving for? Can we expect another round of meetings between the UPA-Left before that?

A: Yes, there will be another round of meetings in the next 10-days. The CPM politburo is meeting on Sunday. We are told that the Congress Working Committee could also meet in the next week and both sides have to take that calculation as to when do they want to go in for a poll.

It is really coming down to that. Both sides at the moment are reluctant to go in for elections because of the economic situation. That might put pressure to further buy time and push this to September or October.

Where does that leave Prime Minster Manmohan Singh who wants to go on July 8 to the G8 summit with something in hand? In fact, we are being told that if he does not have that assurance from the Left on the N-deal, he actually won’t even go for the summit. He will send Pranab Mukherjee instead. We are told the PM is very angry and upset but that doesn’t mean that he resigning just yet. But it clearly means that he has suffered a huge loss of face at the moment and the question is can Sonia Gandhi now afford to have a lamed up government for much longer? Will she take that political calculation that the government should really call for an election in the winter of this year?