G Chandrashekar, Associate Editor, The Hindu Business Line said the next four months will be weather driven in Asia and the US. He told CNBC-TV18 that there may be a bounceback in wheat acreage and soyabean acreage. He further stated that the monsoon forecast is quite favourable and there may be a reasonably good crop across the northern hemisphere.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with G Chandrashekar:

Q: How is the global farm situation panning out in the next four months? Is there enough confidence to believe that Indian and other harvests will look good enough to douse the inflation flames?

A: In fact, as far the northern hemisphere is concerned, the next four months will be weather-driven, both in Asia and the US. Therefore, how it will unfold in the next four months is very difficult to say because the weather is going to be the key determinant. The numbers coming out of the US suggest that there is going to be a bounceback in wheat acreage and soyabean acreage.

In India, the monsoon forecast is quite favourable. There may be a normal monsoon and if the weather holds well, we should have a reasonably good crop all across the northern hemisphere. That should dampen the price spiral that we are currently witnessing. But we are still 4-5 months away. That will be sometime mid-September or towards the end of September.

Q: The inflation figures show quite a mixed data. The steps that the government has taken in the past one month, have they shown any results as of now? Would that still take time to come into the picture?

A: Yes, unfortunately whatever the government has done, it did a little too late and too little. But it has now used all the weapons. The government keeps talking about agriculture and raising agricultural productivity. In less than 15 days, the monsoon should hit South India i.e. the Kerala coast. Today, we do not have the MSP announcement and the minimum support price for the kharif crop is not yet announced.

We still do not know whether there is a contingency plan in case of early season drought or a mixed season drought. We do not know about input availability or the status of fertilizer availability. Somewhere we are missing out of timeline and that is what is causing a great amount of anxiety.