Rumours of exiting Indus JV 'absurd': Idea

A: These reports have been propping up every two-weeks for the last three months completely without foundation. So there seems to be some efforts to propagate them.

A: How do I say something which is absurd, that is absolutely ridiculous.

A: For our company, we have done well to hold onto our EBITDA levels last year despite huge investments in infrastructure on the network side. This normally puts pressure on the EBITDA, although it gives you value in the long run. We do not give any guidance in all our established circles but then we will be rolling out into many new areas which inevitably will start with a negative EBITDA for some quarters, some years. So there would be dichotomy between the performance in the older circles and the new circles.

A: At a sector level, we expect the subscriber additions this year to remain strong like last year. The percentage growth for the entire sector may slowdown but the absolute numbers will remain strong, maybe even higher.

Last year we did well, we increased our market share in our existing circles, we ended up at about 70% and we have added another 10 million (subscribers), so we should do well this year.

Obviously new circles will give a fillip but we would expand market share and subscribers in all our existing properties as well.

Q: Is there any concern on competition eating into market share at this point in time or will the market only expand so that every competitor or every company can hold its own fort in terms of market share?

A: My assessment is that there is not going to be new competition, I would be very surprised if there is going to be any significant rollout of new competitors. This is a very contraire view as compared to what comes in the Press and the media but I really do not think that we have more licenses today than demand for licenses. 

In many ways licenses have lost their meaning and telecom is becoming like any other sector where there are natural competitor barriers and it would require an uncommon effort for someone new to move in.

Q: The other step up that has come in this quarter is the ARPUs which for a lot of other telecom players do not go by. Do you see your revenues per user holding at these levels, if you are going to foray into new circles?

A: No, there is a trend of gentle decline in ARPUs so most companies as prices are dropping they are not fully compensated by Minutes of Use. This is a secular trend, that was prevalent for the last couple of years and we might continue to see this. We had done well in the last quarter when our ARPUs went up and that could be a little bit of seasonality, it could be a little bit of market share gain but on the whole I think there is a trend of gentle decline in ARPUs.

Q: There are some pretty strong aggressive capital expenditure plans as well, that Idea has chalked out over the next few quarters. Just want to touch upon the funding for that. How do you plan to approach it?

A: We are fully funded, we have eleven operation circles right now and two more coming up in the July-September quarter, which is in Bombay and Bihar. We are fully funded to roll all this out. We are looking for a spectrum of new areas, we have got some and we hope to get some more. We have various alternatives of being able to fund our plans aggressively but that is something for which you have to wait a little before I tell you.

Q: Bharti as we all know is supposedly now in the race to acquire South African company and one other point that is put forth is perhaps the Indian market is beginning to saturate and they may not be as aggressive or as great growth opportunities here. As someone who understands a telecom space a lot better than all of us how would you respond to that argument?

A: I don’t think there is too much of a connection between the international market and the Indian market. It is true that when your penetration levels rise, growth will taper. Whether that tapering happens eighteen months or twenty-four months or thirty months is a guess. Of course there could be new revenue streams as you get into broadband and so on. There may be tapering of growth and you would start seeing gentler growth in the future years. But going into newer markets, which maybe a sensible strategy, is not really directly related with what is happening in the Indian market.