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We have it, we see it but cannot sieze the opportunity
Posted by :
mohankumar1000
Dear Bhusbacji,
but you fail to understand that most of us in this are shareholders in Ril either directly or indirectly as i am.and we are pretty confident that the company will scale further highs if and let me repeat if cleans up it`s act.having said that,the mess that the ceo has put this company into due to his and only his personal agenda has taken the growth of the company back by several years.the dissappointment of a majority of faithful shareholders is reflected in the movement of the stockprice which has underperformed to say the least....
We have it, we see it but cannot sieze the opportunity
Posted by :
bhusbhac
Dear NODIK
Please do believe me that although this MMB keeps pouncing on me on siding RIL and Mukesh which I think it is but natural since I am a genuine shareholder of the comapny I have taken into consideration several view and decided not to further invest in RIL and started adding on to other companies in my portfolio.
I have not as much knowledge as to pick multibaggers in unknown names which some investors look for privy information although I did well for example picked L&T at Rs 487 and sold at Rs 1729 and Rs 1558 since I am not happy with an EPS of Rs 9 for Q2 after taking off the exceptional item. In that event if RIL was not under a cloud that Q2 performance of RIL can be considered at Rs 40! So I sold off L&T fearing a collapse.
I did well in PSUs much against market news flows and expectations.
So owning RIL to the extent I hold now was a dream fulfilled so I am not selling and look at it from longterm perspective. Somehow a collapse in RIL will damage our markets and economy considerably since RIL could contribute as much as 1% to the GDP itself.
I also feel that supporting RIL will serve our power needs for which we are perennially short and which does not allow us to grow even faster on our OWN if you look at the import figures of crude.
So I wish this board would realise that I am considering and taking in the arguments and this is a sort of dipstick indicator for me to know the sentiments and emotions now and in the future.
However I would like MMB boarders to substantiate arguements with the SOURCE of information and facts and figures.
Corruption and bribery being a common denominator in this country also where both Mukesh as well as Anil is concerned are some of the topics that I have to avoid for the time being since I do not expect a RADICAL improvement in this direction. We are talking about corrupt GOI officials and politicans taking over corrupt business so it might make matters worse and setback our country by another 100 years.
So let us hope for a graudal changeover to honesty and better corporate governance and this could be possible because of the computer age and information technology. It might happen faster than we imagine. Let us all put our heads together on this.
I cannot possibly get away with my one-sided views and don`t expect the same.
...
LIKELY ORDER OF SUPREME COURT - THE GOVT DETERMINED GAS PRICE WILL BE STRUCK DOWN
Posted by : bhusbhac
sumit22gupta -
We have communicated in the past occassionally however you are not that regular with your comments.
I agree investments in the stock markets are serious business and arguments on several points are revealing. If there were no arguments I would have continued buying RIL at Rs 2300 (although I am not selling I am diversifying my portfolio).
According to a possible corrupt DGH and GOI the gas reserves are for 13 years. For sake of PSC they may have been taken as such as a thumb rule. They may last 100 years. Oil should have already run out of the Earth by past predictions and we are nowhere near to an end. Now here we may give some consideration to RIL. The orignial REL Dadri project has been delayed and if we expect this project to come up latest in the next 2-3 years and that too capable of consuming 28 mmscmd. HHC already commented upon this by stating that FORCE MAJEURE takes care if RIL runs out of gas in KG D6.
RIL went in for crude as well as gas however it was determined that gas was a greater find. Here I do feel that RIL is playing with crude and gas production to time a future when gas and crude prices rise. RIL is already secured for a price of US$ 4.2 for next 5 years barring RNRL and NTPC until the decision is arrived at.
Because of the above RIL is not a significant crude play as yet. There is over cpacity in refining and the GRMs seem to have bottomed out. Please do note that nobody timed the global recession and its affects on commodities and no one is able to tell with any certainty that the world is getting out of the recession. So the cost reductions measure of merger and the stake sale which makes RIL ripe for acquiring distress companies and otherwise further reducing costs should start having a positive effect from Q3. It may not be too much but there has to be some improvement unless global markets collapse further.
Yes I am now lokking longterm for at least next 12 months to see if I get the opportunity to reduce my holding in RIL. I feel a forward 4 quarter PE of 15 is quite reasoanble in INTERNATIONAL markets if not for DOMESTIC players. So I cannot time the bottom either.
There is no ratification of the agreement. The `suitable arrangement` has yet to be drawn since Anil says that the GSMA is NO agreement. Mukesh may fear that Kokilaben will take an emotional and not a business like view. If HHC order is upheld then CLB will insert the clauses which may be further disputed. So whether HSC can takeover that function and bring this matter to finality. There are certain points that US$ 2,34 did not take into account and there were indeed some erronous assumptions between BOTH brothers. Now I hope Anil can tell us how US$ 2.34 can be profitable so that you and me can rationalise on that.
The RIL case is different than otheres that have been cited. Here the CMD himself is saying that he is responsible in personal capacity and the MOU is not binding on RIL. So I have stated that if gas cannot be supplied than Anil should agree to US$ 4.2 and get compensated from Mukesh by some good enough amount after mitigating the illegality of teh MOU in this context, taxation and profit of GOI so I came to a figure of US$ 1 per mmscmd or Rs 10,000 - Rs 15,000 crores cash upfront. Please put your figures with proper perspective and calculations for this MMB to arrive at a consensus.
More later on as I may overshoot the limit!...
LIKELY ORDER OF SUPREME COURT - THE GOVT DETERMINED GAS PRICE WILL BE STRUCK DOWN
Posted by : pss5588
That was not my story goldyji but repro from kalidas blog. what however is indisputable is that mukesh knew all the violations that were done as it was HIS BABY at that point of time and probably such violations were also copied to some extent by other telecom players to ensure competitiveness which again is understandable.
The blog also says that if it is true then revenues also will rise concommitantly as also taxes payable, if there was underreporting of revenues.
cheers....
LIKELY ORDER OF SUPREME COURT - THE GOVT DETERMINED GAS PRICE WILL BE STRUCK DOWN
Posted by : sumit22gupta
Dear Bhusbhac
No idea if u have read my previous or any posts on MMB.
Am not the types who wld argue just for the heck of it or indulge in fightos either.
Gas Agreement between RIL & RNRL is for 17yrs if i heard tht in the news properly is wht i meant; wasn`t referring to GOI`s price thr.
Why did RIL diversify into GAS?
Its a no brainer pal considering tht ever since crude crashed from highs of $147 RIL`s figures have taken a hit too bcos today u wld hv to agree RIL is a pure refinery play (its petrochem or fibre or Rel retail business don`t contribute significantly to the numbers)
GRM`s sink and flow with the movement of crude so u knw hw its been faring and hw lacklusture RIL`s GRM`s have been; they have been lower than the singapore benchmark even and at par with essar oil.
So if refining is i look @ why wld i pay a premium and buy RIL whn i can get similar value in Essar Oil?
GAS is a cleaner fuel and much powerful than crude (rather its an alternative to crude) once production to 80mmscmd is ramped up i guess tht wld be june`2010 thn tht wld contribute significantly to RIL`s numbers.
Wht is Anil Ambani asking?
Just asking RIL to ratify the contract entered in MOU by Mukesh in the presence of KV kamath and Kokila Ben Ambani?
Hwever RIL directors claiming tht gas contract was entered by Mukesh in his personal capacity and the board never ratified it is a Bullshit
Bcos tht means Mukesh himself approves the results of RIL (another Rama Linga Raju and satyam in making) and directors are always sleeping?
IF Mukesh entered into the contract thn ask him to make gud the less profit (which ril wld loose by selling gas to rnrl) in his personal capacity too?
This is a battle of EGO`s rather than gas in reality and a question of Tu bada ya mei bada.
Corruption is thr everywhr in the country and most of the corporates use it as a means to get thr work done & tht can`t be denied.
Cheers
P.s. Mukesh is sitting on a goldmine like RIL and the way he treats his brother is shameless; he never misses a chance to prove to him tht IAM BIG...this is the reason i never like him and my views might be biased towards him and RIL Both...
We have it, we see it but cannot sieze the opportunity
Posted by : NODIK
bhusbhac
Well ! U are right ,the whole spectra is bad..!
Regarding Udayan..or any other anchor on CNBC OR ANY other business channel has very little choise of xpressing his personal views..on the channel, their views are modulated in the manner the market & the masters demand, xpect for the outside xperts who hold their on opinions & perceptions like U & me.GOOD or bad about anything.
U have certainly U R own views & U stand by it, consistently as I have noticed in U R messages & I do respect them, may be I MAY sometime not endorse them fully.
thank U
...
Bonus Impact
Posted by :
dks58the bonus isssue is recapitalisation of the reserves and nothing more. when your reserves are very high, u issue bonus shares. some how one gets to feel that they are getting something free. its not so. InJSPL a share trading at rs300/- plus will have low interest from participants, so try to increase the float for more interest. further it has one more issue that can you service the new shares with dividend?. this is a question which is more interesting. The board of JSPL feals that with every two months adding new generation of elec. will give them more revenue. by the time the cycle for the commodity, steel will be up, giving rise in EPS in the near term. so is the actual bonus. Similry with reliance the gas will give a fillip to the EPS and dollar devaluation may ensure increase in price of crude or worst scene is when the crude cycle moves up so that refining margins are better. so you can expect that within the time frame the bonus pays to the shareholder. Another point is when you see the rate of profit increase is more in the near term. i think this is the story of VST tillers.It profit rose by 38% yoy and now it is gearing for an uptick of at least 10% more so the bonus issue. It also helps the promotor, since the total shares held by him is huge and increase will increas his dividend income for sure.these are the most likely reasons for bonus issue by good companies...
Bonus Impact
Posted by : Gopinathcog1okay......
LIKELY ORDER OF SUPREME COURT - THE GOVT DETERMINED GAS PRICE WILL BE STRUCK DOWN
Posted by : GOLD FINGER
Hi Pss5588, your opinion is not correct.
I am pasting here the news reported in Frontline Magazine dated 2-7-2005
For instance, Mukesh had to give up his baby - Reliance Infocomm, a potential money-spinner - to Anil to make sure the division was equal. RIL is clearly the cash cow, so it would not have been a balanced deal had Anil not got something as big. With telecom emerging as the economy`s new lead industry, Reliance Infocomm, which is already a dominant player in the industry, has the potential to become huge.
...
Bonus Impact
Posted by : avijitbYou got it wrong. The market cap will remain same post bonus and EPS will be half....
Bonus Shares
Posted by : avijitbYes you will provided if hold those 4 RIL share till record date ( yet to be published )....
Bonus Impact
Posted by : VarnerThere just cannot be any postponment of bonus, will taken up in the next board meeting and then date will be fixed for issuance of the elegible shareholders for bonus....
Bonus Impact
Posted by : Gopinathcog1
what happened to the Bonus Information. It has been a month over. Whats the reason for postponding the Bonus shares. Will it happen any time now or only in next Board Meeting...?
Thanks in advance......
ROCKET STOCK.... NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS (I)LTD at 41/- Target of 55/- & 75/- and 135/-
Posted by : India_bulls
ROCKET STOCK.... NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS (I)LTD at 41/- Target of 55/- & 75/- and 135/-
NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS (I) LTD Trading in NSE & BSE at 41/-in B Group. (BSE Code- 508989; NSE Code- NAVNETPUBL) Target 55 & 75/- for short term 135/- for Medium term. Safe Investment at 41/-. Good Dividend yielding at 130% per Annum. Company given good Bonus 3:2 on July 2009.
See My last call IFCI given at 42/- Touched 53/- just 2 days time 25% return in 2 days time.
See My last 1 Month Calls 1) IFCI given at 42/- Reached 53/- just 2 day 2) Ponni Sugar given at 55/- touched 110/-
3) Vikas WSp given at 21/- Touched 35/- 4) Techtran Poly given at 11/- Touched 27/- 5) Guj Borosil given at 11/- Touched at 17.5/- 6) RPG LifeScince given at 22/- Touched 59/--.
Very Valuable stock NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS (I)LTD at 41/- current Market Situation; In this Market correction time Buy safe stocks like NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS (I)LTD at 41/- EPS 7.5/-; PE 6; Good Dividend paying company (130% declared in 2008-09 and 50% declared Interim dividend recently record date 11th November 2009; So happily Buy at current price at 41/- and sell at 55/- to 755/-. Risk free investment at 41/-.
NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS (I)LTD; trading in NSE and BSE at 41 /- in B Group.Daily accumulating company circle people. And Daily grabbing with Mumbai BIG BIG Bulls also because of Now stock is available at very very cheep price at 41/- Annual EPS 6/- for 2008-2009, with PE 7 only. And Company Estimated EPS for 2009-10 is 7.5/-, As per this EPS PE only 5; Narmally in worst condition also PE will at 10 for this Industry. If we take 10 PE It will go Rs. 75/- +++.
Company having Good Reserves and Good Land with Building in Mumbai (Navneet Bahvan at Dadar; Mumbai); Value is very high for this Navneet Bhavan per share 50/- and good Profit making company as per this 75/- So total worth per share was 125/-.
Share Holding Pattern:
Promoters : 63%; FII’s 40%; Corporate Bodies : 7%; Public only 23% Others 7%
Navneet Publications India Limited, founded by the Gala Family, is in the business of Educational and children Books Publishing, Scholastic paper stationery and non-paper stationery products.
This company has a great future. Even if we give a conservative P/E of 10 (Industry Avarage PE was 20), It should be trading at Rs. 75+ based on FY 2009-10earnings. So there is a long way to go. Investors with faith in Navneet management and having patience will definitely earn a lot.
Possitive Points for this stock for Up moving:
1) NAVNEET PUBLICATIONS (I)LTD trading at 41/- in BSE and NSE; Doing Very good Profit making company and Good paying company per year 135% dividend.
2) Recently declared Interim dividend 50%. November 11th 2009 is Record date.
3) Bonus given 3:2 on July 2009.
4) Mumbai Bulls and Operators are accumulating at current price. Because Stock is available at very cheep price at 41/-; Compare to all stocks good value at present Market situation.
5) Company Having good reserves and Good land with Building at Dadar, Mumbai; its very high Value Land in Center.
6) Company doing very good with EPS 6.3 for FY 2008-09 and Estimating EPS was 7.5/- for FY 2009-10 as per this PE 6; Minimum if we take 10 PE It will go 75/- ++ Minimum with Short period.,
7) Good Dividend Yielding; Company declared 10% for 2008-09.
8) Valuable Stock at 41/- Stock Worth up to 100/-( Because Good reserves and Good Land with Building main Center in Dadar, Mumbai and good profits as per this 75+50 = 125/- Worth stock minimum.)
Enter current price at 41/- Short term Target 55/- & 75/- Medium TermTarget 135/-Strong Fundamentals.
Happy Investing...
BIGBULLS
MUMBAI
...
16 Golden Rules to Successful Investment in Stock Market.
Posted by : ppuWhat do you mean by long term , is it 5 Yrs, 10 Yrs or 15 Yrs?...
