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Hold Shree Renuka Sugars
Posted by :
insight95in
Shree Renuka Sugars
Hold
Price: Rs 230 Target Price (Sep’10): Rs210
Gains stacked up, again!
* 4Q09 profits lower than estimates, despite significant trading
profits surprise- Shree Renuka (SRSL) reported 4Q09 adjusted profit of
Rs1.01bn vs. our estimate of Rs1.65bn. Trading profits of Rs0.68bn (vs.
our est of Rs0.15bn) off-set substantially lower profits in sugar, cogeneration
and distillery segments. Sugar sales came in 25% lower than
our estimate on account of 9% lower volume (as SRSL holds 0.30mnt of
white sugar vs. our estimate of 0.18mnt) and 17% lower realisation.
Management acknowledged lower realisation (vs. market prices) was on
account of incorrect timing of sales. This coupled with (a) sugar inventory
valuation at Rs21/kg vs. Rs23/kg our est. (b) lower co-generation and
distillery sales due to lower volumes and (c) forex loss Rs57mn (vs. our est
of Rs148mn of income) led to disappointment in results.
* Cane price guidance surprises, cut our gross spread on cane sugar
by 16-17% in FY10/11E– In line with management guidance, we raise
our sugar realisation assumption by 6% for FY10E to Rs33-34/kg (non-levy
sugar) and cane price assumption by 13% to Rs270/quintal for FY10E. This
leads to gross spread (sugar realisation-cane price) of Rs5.4/kg vs.
Rs6.6/kg earlier. SRSL expects sugar production in India to increase by
~40%, leading to some softness in sugar prices. Therefore, we assume 7-
11% drop (YoY) in sugar and cane prices in FY11, curtailing our gross
spread assumption from Rs6.9/kg to Rs5.8/kg (still reflect higher than
FY10E). We believe inventory gains and higher refinery EBITDA could offset
the cut in cane sugar profitability.
* Raise estimates by 7% for FY10E to reflect inventory profits- We
increase inventory EBTIDA gains for FY10E by Rs2.15bn to Rs3.9bn on
account of higher inventory volume and realisation than our earlier
estimates. We increase our refinery EBITDA assumption by 8-15% for
FY10/11E to reflect higher sugar realisation. We note our current estimates
do not factor in SRSL’s Brazilian acquisition Vale Do Ivai (VDI) in current
estimates as operational and financial details are not yet disclosed.
* Raise target price marginally, maintain Hold– We continue to value
SRSL based on 1 year forward up- cycle multiple of 12x FY11EPS of Rs17.6
and arrive at our Sep’10 target price of Rs210 (from Rs208 earlier) and
hence maintain Hold at current price (potential downside of 10%). We note
that while stock price may track sugar prices in near term, we think
concerns over the longevity/severity of the cycle will eventually emerge,
thus impacting valuation multiple. Key risks to our recommendations are
higher sugar realisation and lower cane price than our assumptions....
Should i seel or hold this stock?
Posted by : kedarrkulkarnilast couple of days and today also this scrip is going down. should i hld at this level or sell. my avg. buy is 215....
bloomberg news
Posted by :
abhaytiw
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar production in India, the world’s second-largest grower, may be 11 percent more than estimated after farmers boosted planting and yields improved because of increased fertilizer use.
Output may jump to 17.68 million metric tons in the season started Oct. 1, according to interviews with 631 farmers across six states by Geneva-based SGS SA for Bloomberg. The farm ministry and the Indian Sugar Mills Association have estimated 16 million tons. The SGS survey used a figure of 16.1 million tons for the previous year.
A bigger harvest may help India pare its reliance on imports and curb the 90 percent rally in global prices this year. A shortage turned the country, the biggest consumer, into a net buyer for the first time since 2006 and sent prices to a 28-year high in September.
“If India’s production turns out to be better than expected because of higher recovery and yield, it could prove to be mildly bearish for prices,” said Leonardo Bichara Rocha, an economist at the London-based International Sugar Organization.
India’s cane harvest this year may increase 9.8 percent to 297.95 million tons, bolstered by a 3.8 percent increase in acreage and a 5.7 percent improvement in yield because of better irrigation and fertilizer application, the SGS survey showed. The survey by five teams between Oct. 20 and Nov. 3 covered six main cane-growing states including Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the biggest producers.
Sugar production may total 16 million tons this year, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said Nov. 4.
Price Dispute
Mills in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest cane grower, haven’t begun crushing because of a price dispute with farmers, while rains hampered harvests twice this month in Maharashtra, the second-largest cane grower.
Reporting of “bad crop” conditions increased this year in the states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, while the health of fields in Maharashtra and Gujarat states wasn’t affected, the survey showed. Pest attacks on the standing crop fell in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, compared with the prior season, it said.
While 97 percent of the farmers reported dry weather, high prices encouraged them to intensify irrigation and increase the use of fertilizer to boost yields, the survey showed.
Prices at Vashi in Mumbai, India’s biggest market for the commodity, have surged 82 percent this year, reaching a record 3,536.65 rupees per 100 kilograms ($76) on Nov. 7. Raw sugar in New York and white sugar in London have almost doubled this year.
‘Highly Optimistic’
Indian cane growers remain “highly optimistic” about prices this year, with 64 percent expecting more than 2,000 rupees ($43) a ton. Prices will determine crop acreage next season, the survey said.
Opposition lawmakers stalled parliament twice last week, demanding farmers must be paid more than the rate of 130 rupees per 100 kilograms fixed by the government. Mills in Uttar Pradesh offered 180 rupees, which opposition parties say isn’t enough. Growers want 280 rupees.
The country’s 50 million cane farmers are a powerful voting block, and Uttar Pradesh sends the largest number of lawmakers to parliament.
“We haven’t factored the fallout of political developments related to sugar in our forecast” of 17.3 million tons for the country, International Sugar Organization’s Rocha said.
India extended duty-free purchases of raw sugar by nine months to Jan. 1, 2011, to bridge a shortfall. White, or refined, sugar can be bought without paying taxes until March 31, a four- month extension.
‘New Highs’
“India’s deficit will extend into the next season, and I expect global prices to hit further highs,” said Krishnakumar Srinivasan, a fund manager at Sundaram BNP Paribas AMC Ltd. in Chennai. Purchases may total 4 million to 5 million tons this year, he said. The fund manages $2.9 billion and owns shares of Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd. and Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd., the nation’s top producers.
The world may have a surplus of 500,000 tons of sugar in the 2010-11
...
Exit level for Renuka Sugar Please guide
Posted by :
goelrajeshThis is the good time for booking profit in the shares. Presently it trading at 52 week high. There is a problem regarding fixation of minimum price of cane. If the govt increases the prices of the cane, which mills have to pay this additional amount. There is hit on the profit of the comanies. Due to this we should book profit in renuka sugars presently....
Correction in the Corner - Book Profit
Posted by :
BNQThere is still some upside possible in Shree Renuka Sugar as results are good but as everybody is expecting Correction in Jan-March 2010 Book profit whenever there is good rise and enter at lower levels....
Exit level for Renuka Sugar Please guide
Posted by : jpmodiyil
100% correct see it is again at 230 + levels. A strong result will give it additional boost. Cheers
Jay...
BSE Announcements on Shree Renuka
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd has announced the following Audited results for the quarter & year ended September 30, 2009:
The results for the quarter ended September 30, 2009
The Company has posted a profit after prior period adjustments of Rs 482 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 121 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 5478 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2008 to Rs 8490 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009.
The results for the year ended September 30, 2009
The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 1435 million for the year ended September 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 927 million for the year ended September 30, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 18151 million for the year ended September 30, 2008 to Rs 22398 million for the year ended September 30, 2009.
The Consolidated Results are as follows
The results for the quarter ended September 30, 2009
The Company has posted a profit after prior period adjustments of Rs 1012 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 368 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 6350 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2008 to Rs 10876 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2009.
The results for the year ended September 30, 2009
The Company has posted a profit after prior period adjustments of Rs 2235 million for the year ended September 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 1339 million for the year ended September 30, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 21192 million for the year ended September 30, 2008 to Rs 28225 million for the year ended September 30, 2009....
NSE Announcements on Shree Renuka
Posted by : MMB MessengerShree Renuka Sugars Limited has informed the Exchange regarding the standalone Results for the quarter ended on 30-SEP-2009 as follows: Net Sales of Rs. 85630 lacs for quarter ending on 30-SEP-2009. Net Profit / (Loss) of Rs. 4820 lacs for the quarter ending on 30-SEP-2009....
NSE Announcements on Shree Renuka
Posted by : MMB MessengerShree Renuka Sugars Limited has informed the Exchange regarding the consolidated Results for the year ended on 30-SEP-2009 as follows: Net Sales of Rs. 281600 lacs for year ending on 30-SEP-2009 against Rs. 211430 lacs for the year ending on 30-SEP-2008. Net Profit / (Loss) of Rs. 22350 lacs for the year ending on 30-SEP-2009 against Rs. 13390 lacs for the year ending on 30-SEP-2008....
NSE Announcements on Shree Renuka
Posted by : MMB MessengerShree Renuka Sugars Limited has informed the Exchange regarding the consolidated Results for the quarter ended on 30-SEP-2009 as follows: Net Sales of Rs. 109330 lacs for quarter ending on 30-SEP-2009. Net Profit / (Loss) of Rs. 10120 lacs for the quarter ending on 30-SEP-2009....
NSE Announcements on Shree Renuka
Posted by : MMB MessengerShree Renuka Sugars Limited has informed the Exchange regarding the standalone Results for the year ended on 30-SEP-2009 as follows: Net Sales of Rs. 223420 lacs for year ending on 30-SEP-2009 against Rs. 182420 lacs for the year ending on 30-SEP-2008. Net Profit / (Loss) of Rs. 14350 lacs for the year ending on 30-SEP-2009 against Rs. 9270 lacs for the year ending on 30-SEP-2008....
FROM ALL THIS DEVELOPMET RENUKA IS BEST
Posted by : abhaytiwONE OF BEST SUGAR PLAY...
Exit level for Renuka Sugar Please guide
Posted by : anoopsinghbaisplease keep your eyes and ears open.if you had time to come on the board you would have also heard about farmers` protest.Just a sentimental jolt.I think smart investor would have used this opportunity to accumulate....
Exit level for Renuka Sugar Please guide
Posted by : Abhishek ShuklaWhy is the stock falling so much today? are all boarders just using the platform to profit by providing misguided information?...
Exit level for Renuka Sugar Please guide
Posted by : vatsh
There is a agitation in delhi by farmers.
If center is forced to increased the FRP rate as such sugar companies earnings will take a hit....
