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16 Oct 2008 22:10

Decoupling days are coming ahead.........

IFCI

Posted by : morningstar
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 25.05 ( -6.18 % ), NSE: Rs. 25.00 ( -6.54 % )
View full thread (649 messages)

Tracked by: 4 Boarders

Dear athiest, you have forgotten the aviation industry. The biggest layoff perhaps in this history of India has occured with Jet giving pink slips overnight to 800 of its various staff. This is soon to be followed with another 2000 employees including pilots and technicians. This gives you an inkling of things to come. Imagine a purser with a service of 2 years drawing a handsome salary gets pink slipped and he has bought a house as an investment, how will he pay the EMIs???? Experts say the next in line after the credit crisis will be the corporate houses. From the way airlines are laying off staff, it appears travel has fallen down by an unprecedented extent, the next in line will be the hospitality industry which will have a ripple effect. This layoff will have a snowballing effect on God knows how many businesses including fleet operators who used to earn their living shunting airline employees too and fro from the airport and so many other professions!!

Already per reports there is a drastic reduction in sales at malls and supermarkets due to the aftermath of the financial crisis. Also almost every second day there are reports of suicides by entire families and individuals because of the financial crisis.

It is advisable to stay clear off the markets and real estate for the time being till things start to improve and this process, per my opinion, will take a long time and till then we will have to bear with the pain.

Please stay in cash and don`t get your night`s sleep disturbed due to the ongoing market volatility, credit card loans, et al.

Cheers!!...

In reply to:

Decoupling days are coming ahead.........

Posted by : bubbu64

atheist

ur right , however about 50% of the real estate deals done by ICICIBANK so far from 2003-2004 onwards were mostly done with IT software professionals and BPO workers. Of this a very large part were from the BPO sector. With the IT and the BPO sector soon to take a hit bcoz of the world wide crisis I am going to see huge loan defaults arising sooner or later and secondly the real estate mkts will soon start its downward spiral and in such a case those who have taken a second or more property for speculative investment will soon try to get rid of it even at reduced prices. If it doesnt get sold due to current high int rates most of these investors will start defaulting, unless of course ICICI either reduces the EMI`s or increases the period. It has already started happening but then ur right it may not happen. What will start a housing downturn like in the US needs a spark like fear of prices falling, job losses, fear factor etc. Anything can happen. if prices fall and if those try to renegotiate their loans due to decrease in value or threaten to default, then ICICI will have a huge property bank on their hands at a loss and its will impact its balance sheet. I remember a friend of mine in ICICI in bangalore who confided in me in 2004 as to how ICICI was giving loans to all and sundry of course with a 15 down payment but not sure if the guy would be able to repay his loan. It was easy getting a loan in 2003 like buying a cigarette at the local pan shop. Infact the max defaults if they ever happen will happen from the BPO call center etc sector. Easy loans, easy money, for a couple working in the same co life was cool. I guess the party is getting over.

16 Oct 2008 22:10

Today upper limit can be hit.....

Kaashyap Tech

Posted by : vkk43
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 0.78 ( 2.63 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

In that case,it would prove to be the best investment for this year....

In reply to:

Today upper limit can be hit.....

Posted by : mano

Buy 10lack shares at 0.40 by investing lacks of rupees you will get 15 lack in one year time.

16 Oct 2008 22:08

Weak undertone

Hindalco

Posted by : vkk43
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 69.75 ( -12.15 % ), NSE: Rs. 68.85 ( -12.79 % )
View full thread (9 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Thanks for this msg....

In reply to:

Weak undertone

Posted by : ar_akm

Hi vkk43, No doubt, market conditions are good for the stock?

16 Oct 2008 22:07

Decoupling days are coming ahead.........

IFCI

Posted by : knair
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 25.05 ( -6.18 % ), NSE: Rs. 25.00 ( -6.54 % )
View full thread (649 messages)

Tracked by: 4 Boarders

Dear bubbu,

The house loan issue is related not only to icici but all banks and even to hdfc too.

You are right in saying that most of the loan disbursal was done for the IT related people. In fact, when I went to see some flats in Bangalore along with my son, the brokers, bankers and flat owners were focusing mostly on my son, almost ignoring me. The first question was where he worked. When he told that he is an SW Engineer, they became active and ready to move around him. Slowly I took control of the situation but they did not like it. Later on I found that they were frequently calling him on his mobile. He asked them to talk to his dad and there ended the issue.

Anywhere we went in Bangalore, the scene was the same. The IT employees were followed everywhere. Loan was so easy. Fortunately, we did not go for it. He went to US and we shifted to our house at Gulbarga.

Property was hot. It still is in Bangalore. But, things are getting changed. Demand is slow and developers have changed their aggressive plans. Slow down started. Not the way it is presented.

In case of IT, job is not unsecured yet. The boom is not there. Attrition is reduced, so new recruitments are reduced. People are not jumping into companies frequently now. The US news is doing the harm here. Problem is for freshers. Experienced people need not worry at present. What will happen tomorrow, nobody knows. Share prices are falling but not the work. But fear is there everywhere.

Housing loan is going to take turns now. We have to see what is waiting for us. Anything bad happens in the mkt is bad for all of us also.

with regards,

knair...

In reply to:

Decoupling days are coming ahead.........

Posted by : bubbu64

atheist

ur right , however about 50% of the real estate deals done by ICICIBANK so far from 2003-2004 onwards were mostly done with IT software professionals and BPO workers. Of this a very large part were from the BPO sector. With the IT and the BPO sector soon to take a hit bcoz of the world wide crisis I am going to see huge loan defaults arising sooner or later and secondly the real estate mkts will soon start its downward spiral and in such a case those who have taken a second or more property for speculative investment will soon try to get rid of it even at reduced prices. If it doesnt get sold due to current high int rates most of these investors will start defaulting, unless of course ICICI either reduces the EMI`s or increases the period. It has already started happening but then ur right it may not happen. What will start a housing downturn like in the US needs a spark like fear of prices falling, job losses, fear factor etc. Anything can happen. if prices fall and if those try to renegotiate their loans due to decrease in value or threaten to default, then ICICI will have a huge property bank on their hands at a loss and its will impact its balance sheet. I remember a friend of mine in ICICI in bangalore who confided in me in 2004 as to how ICICI was giving loans to all and sundry of course with a 15 down payment but not sure if the guy would be able to repay his loan. It was easy getting a loan in 2003 like buying a cigarette at the local pan shop. Infact the max defaults if they ever happen will happen from the BPO call center etc sector. Easy loans, easy money, for a couple working in the same co life was cool. I guess the party is getting over.

16 Oct 2008 22:06

Weak undertone

Hindalco

Posted by : ar_akm
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 69.75 ( -12.15 % ), NSE: Rs. 68.85 ( -12.79 % )
View full thread (9 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Hi vkk43, No doubt, market conditions are good for the stock?...

In reply to:

Weak undertone

Posted by : vkk43

U just see today`s condition for this scrip.

16 Oct 2008 22:03

Today upper limit can be hit.....

Kaashyap Tech

Posted by : mano
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 0.78 ( 2.63 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Buy 10lack shares at 0.40 by investing lacks of rupees you will get 15 lack in one year time....

In reply to:

Today upper limit can be hit.....

Posted by : vineet1982

Hello friends,

ha ha ha today upper limit may be hit. those had purchased it at lower lever may book partial profits. As I think Sept. 2008 result will have 100% growth and the reason is dollor/rupee as on 1st sept is at 42 and now at 48 and you may think how much the profit a company can make.

Vineet

16 Oct 2008 21:56

Sona Koyo Stee

Posted by : shankar_pr8
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 10.45 ( -4.91 % ), NSE: Rs. 10.50 ( -4.98 % )
View full thread (1 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

I am averaging this share from 45 rupees. I have 2000 in my bucket. No buyers even at this level. Should I hold ? Someone please advise...

16 Oct 2008 21:55

Are we far or near to bottom?

Reliance

Posted by : Sriman35
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 1397.25 ( -8.03 % ), NSE: Rs. 1391.95 ( -8.44 % )
View full thread (5 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

-Q-
Are we entering in to long term slow down compounded by world economy?
.
Expert please comment
-UQ-

Hi investor11,

Sorry to but in for commenting, though I am not an expert.

Market is close to the bottom. At the max another 10 to 15% downside left. Expect the volatility to continue till Dec`08. But it will be prolonged sub dued market for the rest of 2009, atleast till H1.

Regards,
Sri
...

In reply to:

Are we far or near to bottom?

Posted by : investor11

News headlines are
JET has removed 800 emplyee
Reliance retail removing their employee
Corporate earning disapointing
IIP no dismal
Gov strugling to improve liquidity
Short sellers rulling the game

DOW below 9000
No respite following 700 billion $ bailout package
Europian down by 5-7%
Asian peers no better
Emerging market dismal performance

What is the out look for Indian equity market?
Low PE multiple are looking expensive
Yesterday blue chips are looking midcap today.
Are we entering in to long term slow down compounded by world economy?
I see NIFTY to trade at sub 3000 level which may not be too far away
Expert please comment

16 Oct 2008 21:54

best buy time....enjoy

Petronet LNG

Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 40.85 ( 0.99 % ), NSE: Rs. 40.95 ( 0.86 % )
View full thread (63 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Honestly i dont understand Lalith,

Something i am not able to crack is the MYSTERY called SKOTAK.. suddenly language is so good and suddenly atrocious.. how is it posible? hmmm......

In reply to:

best buy time....enjoy

Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey

Earth, air, sky sun, rivers sea are for every one.
Whiis who is none of the business of any one of you.


Where just matter ends with guest Id having almost all
rights on this board, why one shall spoil brain???????

and you people are talking like this is your property.
Moderators do not mind anything except messages posted
within the rule set for the board, Who are to go in such details?
Who gave you right ??

Do your business and let others to do their own!!!!!!!
Free board dosent give you right of Retention or Redeemption
of your thoughts.

Black cat can post here if she can post!!!!!!
white dog can have walk on this Ramp.....
Hounds can compete any one here.....

16 Oct 2008 21:52

This can be multibagger

Freshtrop Fruit

Posted by : nol
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 17.40 ( 0.87 % )
View full thread (25 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

thank you mr. nodick, you are right i have confimed from an independent source....

In reply to:

This can be multibagger

Posted by : Nodick

use your mind yar. Simple check shareholding of MOSL

16 Oct 2008 21:51

is it de right time to buy bata shares?

Bata India

Posted by : vtycoon
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 102.10 ( 4.66 % ), NSE: Rs. 101.80 ( 4.25 % )
View full thread (2 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

as major world economies will enter recession , demand fr footwear`s will decline significantly hence impacting bata`s business ! ..

it will have a direct impact on its earning which have been discounted in bata`s share price ...

its a strong buy @ 85-90 ....d a SL 82 ..... fr a short term target f 100-115...

In reply to:

is it de right time to buy bata shares?

Posted by : Guest

any reason why it is falling tremendously?

16 Oct 2008 21:50

Pull back expected

Rohit Ferro Tec

Posted by : vkk43
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 58.90 ( -4.92 % ), NSE: Rs. 58.80 ( -4.93 % )
View full thread (11 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

All these shares will hv to stabilise somewhere. At present weakness continues so it cannot be said that they are bottoming out, particularly Tata Steel and Hindalco....

In reply to:

Pull back expected

Posted by : Sriman35

Hi vkk,

Yes, very week.... infact beaten down to the core. Think we are bottoming out in metal sector, atleast the case of scripts like Tata Steel (5 yr low), Hindalco (4 yr low), Sesa Goa.. etc....

Regards,
Sri

16 Oct 2008 21:49

Margins under pressure

Larsen

Posted by : vkk43
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 825.75 ( -7.55 % ), NSE: Rs. 823.50 ( -8.05 % )
View full thread (2 messages)

Tracked by: 1 Boarder

But share has already fallen today to 825/-, even when there was a rally at close....

In reply to:

Margins under pressure

Posted by : vtycoon

Larsen & Toubro has posted gross sales of Rs.7,777 crores for the quarter ending September 2008, registering a growth of 40% over the corresponding quarter of previous year. Total income for the quarter grew to Rs.7,842 crores (Rs.5.523 crores for quarter ending Sept. 07) registering a growth of about 42%. This is more than expectations, as 35% growth in topline on an annualized basis is being projected by the analysts for the company.



However, disappointment came from pressure on margins, which has resulted into a lower growth at operating profit and net profit levels. EBIT for the quarter is at Rs.760 crores against Rs.561 crores of the corresponding quarter of previous year, recording a growth of 35.50%. PAT rose to Rs.460 crores (Rs.348 crores) which grew by 32%. Interest costs increased to Rs.69 crores against Rs.13.24 crores for Sept. 07 quarter and Rs.38.24 crores for June 08 quarter.



Inspite of global slowdown, the company secured fresh orders of Rs.12,453 crores during the quarter, which recorded a y-o-y growth of 74%. Of this, engineering & construction orders are of Rs.10,434 crores, registering a growth of 90%, with share of international orders at 22%. As at 30-09-08, this division had an order book of Rs.60,931 crores with share of international orders being 17%.



EPS for first half of the company, on expanded equity base of Rs.117 crores, is at Rs.16.50. Generally, September quarter of the company is always lean while March quarter is robust. On full year base, FY 09 EPS, should be close to Rs.48.



Post result announcements, the share price of the company fell by about 10% to Rs.900. On expected FY 09 earnings, share is ruling at a PE of less than 20. The company is confident of posting a growth of about 30% in topline and bottomline for FY 09 and FY 10, which looks possible, considering its order book and improvement in its margin from 10.60% to 11% in its engineering and construction division, from which 80% of the company’s turnover comes.


One may not be able to catch the bottom for the stock, but those who have 12 month horizon, can contemplate buying at Rs.900 levels and those who are holding it are advised to remain invested.

16 Oct 2008 21:48

Reliance Industries may hit 1670-1680: Bose

Reliance

Posted by : sanjay38000
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 1397.25 ( -8.03 % ), NSE: Rs. 1391.95 ( -8.44 % )
View full thread (4 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

reliance ind can touch 1112/- before going to make any upside....

In reply to:

Reliance Industries may hit 1670-1680: Bose

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Technical Analyst, Rajat K Bose is of the view that if the market were to really move up, Reliance will take it up and it may even hit Rs 1,670-1,680.

16 Oct 2008 21:46

Pls advise!!!

Shasun Chemical

Posted by : rags123
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 17.65 ( -5.11 % ), NSE: Rs. 17.75 ( -3.79 % )
View full thread (7 messages)

Tracked by: 1 Boarder

I recommended a sell on the stock when it was selling at the levels you bought. For the time being, the stock has broken the floor of a falling channel which signals further downside. I recommend you sell the stock and buy again at lower levels. The extent of downside is difficult to predict. But I see the stock settle between 10-12 in the near term. An intermediate bounce post the fall looks to be a certainty....

In reply to:

Pls advise!!!

Posted by : goodbet

I hold 850shares @ 47. Can anybody advise me on the future roadmap? The last qtr results were disaster..

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