Please take note, I am neither a bull nor a bear, am just like a portion of the tail of a comet. I just follow the trend. The trend and my stop loss are my only friends.

Timings to change from 24th September 08 till 8th october due to sun outage
Market Open: 09:55 hrs
Market will remain close: 11:25 hrs to 12:05 hrs
Market re-open:12:10. Market closes at 4.15

NIFTY AS ON 6.10.08 WAS 3602 SPOT.

This message posted at - 7:15 PM, 6.10.08.

The nifty levels for 7th October 2008 are as follows, all being spot levels -

support1 = 3555
support2 = Cant say
On upside, resistance1 = 3710 and
resistance2 = 3790

Nifty has broken very important supports and has again ended at days lows with no sign of a recovery whatsoever. The fact that it has closed below so many supports just shows that more downfall is likely still. Nifty needs to close above 3800 fast to get into its previous trading band otherwise, it will sink very badly once again.
Trade carefully, no more shorting from here because the upswing due to short covering can be very swift. Markets already factored that dow will sink 200 points tonight. If dow goes below 10200, it gets weaker.

Oh my god !!! is what people will say when they see the headlines tomorrow in the front pages of the national dailies showing this massive fall in the sensex and world markets. Now dont tell me, I did not warn those who read my earlier posts. It was all coming so easily. Hopefully people who undestood what I wrote would have saved their capital in this huge fall and those waiting for Long term investments must have entered by now like I have done in a staggered way today. I had waited for nine months for this day to come and I have been well rewarded for my patience as I am able to pick up stocks at such low rates. I am yet to invest the other half of my capital still and will be doing as nifty sinks lower from here.

Stop losses for long positions should be kept a little below supports and stop losses for short positions should be kept a little above resistance levels.

Happy trading and all the best.
lovemeall26

PS: Short term predictions come with fair amount of risk and this is just a guidance without any commitment.

4.10.08. NIFTY AT 3818
THE LAST NAIL IN THE COFFIN.

On friday the 3rd of october, nifty closes at 3818, the lowest weekly close of the nifty for the year 2008. Although we have closed once before too at 3816 few weeks back, but that was not a weekly close. As mentioned earlier in my posts that we will break 3800 in october and after having done that in september itself, we are back to the previous lows once again. Now where do we go from here. Is it the end of the pain. I certainly dont think so. The way biggies like Reliance, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel etc sank on friday, it surely shows that much more pain is still left.
The fact that the dow closed in the red on wednesday, thursday and friday just shows that things are not so rosy. On friday, the dow was up 314 points at one time and at close, ended at the days low , minus 157. Did one notice how the dow index sank swiftly by 200 points just as the bailout plan got the majority of the yes votes. I had already mentioned on 2nd october,that US investors are not happy with the bailout plan and that now the dow will sulk and sink further to show thier unhappiness. They need to take out more juice from the fed. The dow was rallying high in the green on friday on expectation that since the markets were not rallying as they were supposed to be, perhaps the fed would resort to a reduction on fed rates from 2 % to perhaps 1.5 %. But the operators there know that if they end in green inspite of the good news of the bailout plan being passed, the fed would not reduce interest rates. They need to show their pathetic state,hence ended in the red inspite of the ban on short selling being extended till 17th october. This just shows they are preparing themselves to sink further. In the US, 1,59,000 jobs were lost in september, the highest in five years. LIBOR rates are at all time highs, which means banks and financial institutions are hoarding cash and bracing themselves up for tighter liquidity in the coming months. All this does not project a great picture for the future.
Last month or so, when Oil was on the boil, jokers on TV came and said that when Oil cools to below 100 dollars, our bull run will start. Then the Nuclear deal was projected as the catapult to the new bull run. Then cooling off of the inflation was put next. And finally the US bailout plan having been passed in the house of representatives was the last straw of hope for the bulls for the resumption of the upmove to resume and hence, the die hard bulls held unto thier long positions and portfolio's. Even the mutual funds and HNI's were waiting in anticipation for the positive outcome and many people took up huge long positions on friday, thinking of a gap up from next week. Still some poeple are thinking that our half yearly results will be good and will take up the markets. There is no doubt that India is much relatively better poised than the rest of the world, but somehow I feel this time, the outcome of the results too would not be as good as one would have expected due to the uncertain world scenario which will surely be reflected in the balance sheets of export oriented companies. One thing we should learn from the markets is that never take positions on what the markets have already factored in. If the bailout plan was supposed to be such a huge trigger, world markets would have already rallied long time ahead. They would not have waited for the actual outcome which all knew would be positive. Even Mutual funds and HNI's have a limit of taking in losses on their portfolio's and have put stop losses somewhere close to where we have ended. They know that if we sink further, not only will there be price correction, but also time correction will set in. Hence, they also need to limit their losses and encash their portfolio's and use it on some other more profitable markets. So, personally now I feel, with the last hope of the bailout plan having any positive impact on the dow jones and world markets evaporated into thin air, the last nail in the coffin has been hammered.The time has come for the die hard bulls to give up and get rid of their portfolio's and long positions which unfortunately will only result in us seeing lower lows. That is the name of this game and this is how bear markets play out. We have just witnessed this exact scenario in Reliance on friday when it closed at 52 weeks lows. Surely, more downside coming up on this counter too.
However, I repeat, do not take all this as gospel and take your own decisions. One never knows, there might be a surprise event that might come up which might help the markets immensely and things will be fine once again. The US financial system is in losses in excess of 8 trillion dollars and 700 billion dollars is just not even 10 percent of it. Hence, the system needs nothing short of a miracle to come out of this mess. It indeed is a once in a century sort of a situation we are presently going through at present. God help America.

27.9.08
CORRECTIONS IN A BEAR MARKET

TOP - BOTTOM - PEAK - BOTTOM - Value - FALL - Period of
YEAR - YEAR - VALUE - VALUE - Of Fall - %AGE - correction

APR 1992 - APR 1993 - 1281 - 600 - 681 - 53% 12 Months
FEB 2000 - SEP 2001 - 1818 - 850 - 968 - 53% - 20 Months
JAN 2008 - So Far - 6357 - 3581 - 2776 - 43.75% - 9 Months

Rest you can calculate for yourself of the possible road ahead.

27.9.08 NIFTY AT 3985
THE MARKETS AHEAD
As mentioned earlier, once below 4060, we are in bear territory and only when we go above 4100 now can we see a small rally if any. With the bailout package running into rough weather, world markets responded by getting weaker on friday and we were no exception. Nifty closed exact at my second support of 3980, only briefly going below it till 3973 and ending at 3985. I am afraid it is getting worse and my prediction that we shall breach 3800 in october is coming nearer and nearer.
Upon studying the charts, one will notice that when we made a jan low of 4448, we retested it again in mid march in about two months time.Following this, there was a nice rally right upto 5298 on 2nd may which lasted three months. Then there was three more attempts to breach it in june and finally the fourth attempt on 19th june succeeded in breaching the lows.This final breach happend about three month after the second attempt at the lows in march. Comparatively, in the present scenario, when we made a low at 3790 on 16th july, we retested it again on 18th september, again in two months time like before. However, due to total lack of conviction on the part of the bulls, we are on the verge of testing it for the third time in less than two weeks from the second attempt compared to the three months it took last time. What does this prove. It just shows that we are getting weaker faster. I am not saying we will breach 3800 this coming week, but one more wrong news on the global front can take us there fast as we at present are sitting on final supports before the previous lows. Hence, trade with caution because if the global news is bad, we might not be making three or four attempts to breach the lows like we did in june, it might be a one way move - down because bulls are now sitting right on the edge of thier seats before they get toppled off for some time. There are huge stop losses sitting just below 3790 and once they get triggered, we can see massive selling. Even the bears know that and they will go all out to go for it.
Personally, I see that the bears are now becoming fearless in the fact that they do not fear to short at days lows knowing well that nifty is breaking one support after another so soon. Domestic mutual funds and HNI's are still sitting on huge cash margins waiting for that one final blow to come up.FII's continue to exit emerging markets as they need the cash to make up for the losses in thier domestic markets. I feel bear markets dont end this way so easily. Bears need to see one more final panic situation come up when alongwith huge volumes stocks appear undervalued and small investors run kilometers away from the stock markets. Only then will the bears cover up and go long. Until then we shall remain to be in a consolidated phase as bears have a firm grip now. When I meet people and brokers from my trading community, they say India has a great growth story and our bottom has been formed at 3800 for sure. That is the consensus. But I argue,is India a bigger economic success than China. Look at shanghai, they have corrected nearly 65 % from thier peaks and we are still only 40 % although they are much more economically stronger than us.The half yearly results begining to come out from october might show slowdown and the markets are sensing that in advance. Hence, keep your minds open to see lower lows in october. Just like in bull markets, the market overlooks bad news, similarly in a bear market, markets tend to overlook the good news. This bailout package of 700 billion dollars is too less for the trillions of dollars in losses that the US economy has suffered now.

20.9.08 NIFTY AT 4245
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION ?

Is the bear market over and a new bull market resumed ?

Yes, the question that is dogging everybody's mind right now is, has this bear market come to its end. By the way, so many markets worldwide hit or came very near to upper circuits, optimists would guarantee that yes the bear market is over now. With the fed pumping in close to half a trillion dollars to salvage its sinking financial ship, the dow closed with its largest weekly gain in quite some time alongwith its largest weekly loss in quite some time. It sure was a roller coaster ride for world markets. In his speech, Treasury secretary Henry Paulson admitted that his country's financial setup was sub optimal,which in other words means it was totally messed up. Hence, they are rectifying past errors as this happens to be an election year and the government does go way too far to impress the people that it is the best and is capable of managing any crisis. But where has this money come in from - come to think of it, it is finally tax payers money. In other words, the government is using tax payers money to bail these messed up financial institutions out. What an easy way out - to make huge losses and get compensated too in return. It could not have been better.
Now lets come to the technical part of the markets.When our markets hit 4448 on 22nd jan 2008, everybody thought that bottom had been formed, but unfortunately we revisited 4468 on 18th march 2008. Now everybody said, double bottom formed and final bottom is made after we bounced back. Hence, people went into heavy long positions for short term, only to be badly bruised once again when we broke 4448 repeatedly in the month of june 2008, only to sink lower and end up at 3790 in the month of July 2008. What happened ? It did not sustain because it was a bear market. Now again, we made double bottom at 3799 on the 18th of September 2008. And the expected bounce back has happened again. Will it sustain this time ? Now that is the million dollar question. Will nifty repeat what it did earlier in the year by breaking 3800 again sometime later in october or will this bottom hold this time and we are on our journey on a new bull run.Who can answer this question, tell me. By the looks of it, the way fed and worldwide banks have pumped in financial assistance and by the way the SEC has banned short selling for some time, one will quickly assume that the bears are dead and the bulls will come back with a vengeance. Now here is where we have to keep a hawk's eye close watch on the conviction of the bulls. Will the bulls take up the nifty on higher volumes and take it beyond previous highs or will they take that opportunity to offload whatever positions they are stuck up in. That needs to be seen. If they do not offload and keep on taking the nifty higher and higher on higher volumes, then one can safely assume that yes, the bull run has begun. Otherwise, its back to the doldrums again. The charts are only showing that we are making lower tops and lower bottoms as the year is progressing. Where will it finally stop which it definately will.
If you ask me, we have witnessed a once in a century situation wherein behemoths like Lehman Brothers and many others have succumbed and crumbled under the mortgage scour. This situation cannot be taken lightly and cannot be thrown under the carpet overnight with the immediate steps taken by the fed. The secretive european banks are yet to wash thier dirty linen in public and once they do, we will witness more writeoffs and bankruptcies. At present, we are only seeing the sub-prime crisis. People are overlooking the grade A prime crisis which is looming larger on the horizon and it promises to be bigger than the sub-prime crisis. Add to that the full secret of CDS unwind is yet to come out into the open. Crude is still hovering around the 100 dollars per barrel mark. I am sure we have not yet seen the last of the mess. In the US, first it was capital erosion, then consumption erosion, then demand erosion. Now, the final and mother of all erosions that is the faith erosion has started to play out. Hence, keep your options open and be prepared for wild swings on either side. Past history of bear markets have shown 53 % and 44 % meltdown from tops. We have only seen 40 % so far. Gauging by the extent of the huge financial mess, I feel we shall retest and break the 3800 levels any time in October 2008. 44 % down from peak means 3560 on the nifty and 53 % means 2984 on the nifty. These could be final bottoms as per my calculation. Ofcourse, please dont take all this as gospel and take your own decisions.
For the time being, the immediate previous high of 4650 needs to be watched closely. How do bulls behave there could provide the actual million dollar answer.


Hello friends,
Some of my online friends have requested me to update my homepage with nifty levels. I will be doing the same after downloading EOD charts everyday and will be giving two support and two resistance levels as for the next day to be traded. Please remember Nifty can go either way on any given day and one should be prepared to trade it as per the trend of the day. I should not be held responsible for anything going wrong as global cues and market internals can take the nifty anywhere inpite of the charts giving contrarian views. I may be proved wrong many times and I would not like to face any flak or reply to any after effects of niftys abrupt moves if it goes against the chart levels. Please remember, charts provide just a channel where the nifty might move and so many factors can change its path anytime. I am against stubborn views on the markets and one should be prepared to see both sides movements of the markets on any given trading day.

Well, I never like to blow my own trumpet, but this is just for inquisitive people. I am just a day trader who only trades in futures lots and a little bit of option trading. I also do momentum trading and mostly swing trading. I never like to trade in delivery stocks coz the investment is greater and also the brokerage is higher, but sometimes I do it when stocks are available at mouth watering prices. Also, in delivery, shorting is a big issue and one tends to get stuck up to trade only in one direction. However, in futures, with less money and bigger leverage at my disposal, I manage to trade in lots much easily. There are better chances in trading in futures as one can trade both up and down directions of the markets to ones advantage. I have started trading since april 2007 only, and in a matter of months made and lost a lot of money too. However, I am a fighter and will not rest until I return victorious from this episode, hence, I am delving deeper and deeper into this chasm of the markets. And mind you, its getting more and more interesting too.
For all new comers to the markets, my message to you is that it is easy to make money in the markets as there is no physical labor involved, however, the mental stress can turn out to be your worst enemy. Hence, you need a strong will and loss sustaining power to fight it out here, otherwise,it can be tough to turn out a winner. You should not run away after loosing money. Mantain a strict regimen for trading and play within your limits with strict stop losses and you may make good money here. So all the best to you all. Happy trading.
lovemeall26