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Moneycontrol.com >> Message Board >> View Messages >> Reliance
   You are here :     Moneycontrol     MMB    Stocks      Reliance                         Most active discussions of 2006 , 2007 & 2008
Positves from now on NIFTY at 4350 (3)   09-Jul-08 18:19Tracked by (0)  
Posted by:   bhusbhac on ( 09-Jul-08 18:19 )
Price : BSE: Rs 2079.95 ( 5.12 % ), NSE: Rs. 2079.15 ( 5.04 % )
1. Crude should trade below US$ 140. Last 2 sessions have proved that crude can crack easily and even if it were to shoot upto US$ 150 due to Iran war threats - we need to realise that these days FEAR & PANIC trigged oversold and overbought situations. So please dont fear and panic. Things are bound to normalies and come back under control.

2. Ideally this Government should last only till the Nuclear Deal is taken to the IAEA. What happens thereafter does not matter and if this Government folds up it should be a good market trigger since the cloud over RIL will be lifted. However even if the Government should not get the required vote of confidence we will be heading for a stable Government. It is well known that BJP would go ahead with the deal with some small modifications.

3. The earning season is on. Even if there is some shrinkage of profits and growth for this quarter for our corporate earnings due to the volatility of the problems we ought to look forward 6 to 12 months from now.

4. The monsoons seem to be faring well so for the time being no shortage in sight. So long as farmers benefit directly by higher prices the inflations can be tolerated for the next 6 to 12 months. July has always beem the best trigger for our markets during monsoon.

5. The mere progress and THREAT of the Nuclear Deal going forward would bring crude crashing towards US$ 100 and then we will be looking at NIFTY levels of 5500 at least in August / September 2008. If a mere threat of war can take crude price up the threat of Nuclear as an alternate and greener energy will certainly bring crude crashing down and so will commodities and so will inflation.

Once NIFTY touches 4350 and crosses it decisively 4800 is well in sight. This is not based on charts this is translating figures of 20% upmove of a bear market nevertheless which suggests that we should look forward to 4800 from now on.
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