Take the ICICI secs head who came on Friday and defended his put writing! And continued to defend -so what call writers too have been scalped!
But to me,
If you sense that there is an impending force coming of unknown strength
It is not good wisdom to place your huge bet against it!
As from the US credit crisis, the Lesson is when some one gambles against such a force with a revealing and spreading negative sentiment,
The Market in its entirety suffers with every such fall there is lesser and lesser resistance as you would have sensed, while it should have been the opposite!
There ought to be more and more resistance as the fall increases.
The fact again is while the Retail was foolish in believing decoupling!
The Informed Financials too have had it by the extent of the unfolding esp this recent part!
Now it seems the retail got way innocently and lightly in their passion!
More so because they are done with it!
I do believe the FM too thought 100$ was almost the peak in February!
But not in May08!
Like The Surge in Iraq, The Surge in oil was impending!
The Financials wanted something to cling as the truth unfolded! They clutched Oil and

Again dragged us down!

This is the most painful part of financial coupling with the United States!
We who are striving to rise from our internals are now forced into a crisis not of our making!

Strangely if you had followed the Wall Street wizards who were then predicting 12600 as a testing level on the sensex on CNBC!
So You cant complain Udayan! and neither blame!
I Hope you see that defending is noble but defending the indefensible is a crime esp Knowingly! And more so Leading the others to it!
Read the Charge of the Light brigade or the umpteen Hollywood world war movies of the betrayed defending their stance with Life!
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Defending the Nifty!
There is inherently nothing wrong in a channel supporting the Nifty!
It can declare that it is doing, that’s all it takes! Not silently!
But as I had explained in the earlier Messages,
We underestimate the Knowledge of Our Presenters esp about the Extent of the Credit crisis since May08.
If you had watched the BBC’s World Debate you would have met our FM discussing the impending Food crisis and Oil inflation with the Financial Representatives of Nigeria, China, the US, Brazil and several other countries.
We thought the bubble had burst in Jan and that was all. No, they were talking of letting the air out slowly esp the stock markets!
My Anger against Udayan stems from the fact that while he warned us of the impending crash on Jan.
He let us have it, by playing along with the government while the Nifty was slowly being deflated!
For eg. Take the day Inflation Jumped from 8 to 11,
It was a stage managed affair! He was not on show But was standing awaiting for the news. And when the numbers flashed
He said “oof”
To me it was not a very convincing “oof”!
He may be a good professional but his integrity thwarts him from being a good actor!
Later I confirmed my hunch when Lata pointed it out that consecutively week after week market took position before the numbers! Once she had unofficial numbers!
Which means on 20 June he was informed ahead of the event! Ready to control the market shock!
The Nifty had broken 4400! There was no point in defending the Nifty Hence!
Strangely I do believe his wisdom that Levels are irrelevant beyond some point!
My messages are not to convey a sense of trifling his integrity but more because I understand he is more knowledgeable, influential, connected and informed.
“We trust knowledgeable people instinctively! But the point is they can act only on what they can think is good for everybody. They take a risk with their professional judgement! “
But it may be too enormous! In the end you cant blame them for doing their best!
You can only Blame yourself for being led by your ignorance and bear its responsibility.
You would note that all my messages are hence from 10 Jul after the 4200 rebound too failed!
The Knowledgeable old ones will survive, while the young, in their passion are slaughtered!
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Dear Ramesh, I feel probably your question is meant to mean whether this financial year is the best time to invest?. If that is your question, my answer is why not?. I do not think you can ever time the market to perfection. Even a genius will not be able to do it even 50% of the time. So go ahead and invest and try the Sip way for maximum returns and minimum risk. Best of luck. Srikanth...