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25 Nov 2009 09:36

Heading

Tata Steel

Posted by : gupta5223
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 557.40 ( -2.76 % ), NSE: Rs. 558.70 ( -2.50 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

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THE SHARE PRICE OF TATA STEEL IS DEFINITELY OVERPRICED LOOKING AT ITS PERFORMANCE, GLOBAL INDUSTRY SITUAION, HISTORICAL INVESTMENT PARAMETRS AND COMPARISON WITH SAIL. STEEL IS A CAPITAL INTENSIVE INDUSTRY AND THE BEST PARAMETER IS EV/EBITDA. HISTORICALLY THE EV/EBITDA OF TATA STEEL NEVER CROSSED 6.5.,THE HIGHEST WAS IN JULY 08 BASED ON JULY SHARE PRICE AND ANNUALISED EBITDA FOR 2008-09 ON JUNE 08 Q WHICH CAME TO 6.2. THE EBITDA FOR JUNE 09 WAS 27334M AND SHARE PRICE 673, NET DEBT OF 175567M, THIS RATIO DROPPED TO 2.9 ON 31-10-08, 3.1 IN JAN 09 AND 5.5 AT APRIL 09 END. THE QUARTERLY EBITDA IN RSM WERE 30759 IN SEP 09, 13596 IN DEC 08, 22728 IN MARSH 09, FULL YEAR EBITDA WAS 94417 AND AT A PRICE OF 388 ON 26-6-09 THE RATIO WAS 5.7. NOW WE COME TO JUNE 09 WHEN EBITDA DROPPED TO 17886M AND THE RATIO WENT TO 8.0, AT END SEP 09 Q THE EBITDA WENT UP MARGINAALY TO 19983M BUT AT THE SAME TIME NO OF SHARES WERE ALSO HIGHER AT 887M FROM 731M AT JUNE 09 END, EBITDA WAS UP BY 12 % BUT SHARES UP BY 21 %. THE EBITDA FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS THIS YEAR IS 37869M AGAINST 58093M OF LAST YEAR. IF WETAKE THE BEST CASE THAT EBITDA FOR FULL CURRENT YEAR WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST YEAY(WHICH IS HIGHLY DOUBTFUL AS THE CO WILL HAVE TO HAVE EBITDA OF 56548M IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS)BUT LET US CONSIDER THE BEST CASE, THE NET DEBT AS OF SEP 09 WAS 242360M AND IT IS ASSUMED TO BE AT THIS LEVEL AT MRACH 2010. BASED ON THIS AND TAKING CURRENT PRICE OF 575, THE ENTERPRISE VALUE COMES TO 753 BILLION AND EV/EBITDA OF 8.0. WHICH IS VERY MUCH ON A HIGHER SIDE. THE SHARE PRICE EVEN IF EBITDA FOR FULL YEAR IS 95BILLION RUPEES, WILL BE 370 IF THE RATIO IS 6. AT 7 THE SHARE PRICE IMPROVES TO 476 AND THE FAIR PRICE ON 6.5 RATIO COMES TO 424. THE GLOBAL STEEL SCENE GOING FORWARD IS NOT VERY ENCOURAGING THOUGH BETTER THAN THE FIRST 6 MONTHS . RECEMNTLY DUE TO GLOBAL STEEL SCENS, THE COMPANIES IN INDIA HAVE REDUCED THE STEEL PRICES, WHICH IS NOT AN ENCOURAGING SIGN. ALL THIS WORKING OF TATA STEEL IS ON A STANDALONE BASIS AND THE POSITION WORSENS IF WE TAKE THE EBITDA ON A CONSOLISTED BASIS AND NET DEBT AT ALSO ON THE SAME BASOS. . LAST YEAR ON A CONSOLIDATED BASIS NET PRFIT OF TATA STEEL IN JUNE 09 Q WAS 39B RUPEES WHICH CAME DOWN TO MINUS 22 B IN JUNE 09. SEP 09 WILL BE OUT ON 26-11-09 BUT IS LIKELY TO BE NEGATIVE AGAIN. AS COMPARED TO TATA STEEL , THE EV/EBITDA OF SAIL LAST YEAR WAS 5.2 AND SAIL HAS A NET CASH POSITION. THE QUARTELY RATIOS OF SAIL FROM JUNE 08 WERE 3.3 IN JUNE 08, 1.2 IN SEP 08, 1.9 IN DEC 08 AND 5.2 IN MARCH 09, 6.3 IN JUNE 09 AND 5.4 IN SEP 09. HENCE ON A PEER BASIS ALSOTATA STEEL RATIO IS VERY HIGH AND FAIR ONE SHOULD BE AROUND 6.5 IN THE BEST CASE. THE INVESTORS ARE ADVISED TO CAREFULLY CONSIDER THIS AND THEN TAKE THE DECISION TO BUY OR SELL TATA STEEL ...

In reply to:

Heading

Posted by : Varner

Start buy and buy on dips.

25 Nov 2009 09:36

some good observations

Dena Bank

Posted by : panni
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 83.25 ( 3.35 % ), NSE: Rs. 83.35 ( 3.48 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Should I exit from this counter for now?
i hold 600, will sell 300 to-day....

In reply to:

some good observations

Posted by : gupta5223

no mwrger of dena wth canara has been announced. all this is a mere rumor and dena share has gone up on this rumor and is bound to come down soon,the bank has a very high NPA like canara , iob and bank of india. based on first 6 months results, and annualising them, dena will have eps of 16.6 and canara 71. at 83 pe of dena is 4.9 and canara 5.4, dividend yild of dena is 0.5 , canara 2.1, gorss npa of dena 1.98 net npa 1.24 giving a coverage ratio of 37 % for canara this ratio is 27. as per rbi guidelines, recently announced the coverage ratio needs to be 70% in thenext 4 quarters . thus both canara and cdena will need to make substatial provisions which will depress their net profits after taxes. the share price is not governed by one factor namelt pe ratio but is dependent upon various parametrs like pe ratio, op multiple, mp/adjusted net worth( gross minus net npa), dividend yield, FII interst in the shares, quality of mgmt and quality of earnings. it should be noted that dena bank provisions in sep 09 q were very low. at 15 million against 406 m in june 09, last year data in millions june 500, sep 372, dec 462, march 09 514, dena banks opearting profit(profits befiore provisions )came down to 1615m in sep 09 from 2014 in june 09 q . due to non providing of provisions, and lower tax of 354m against 457m in june 09 q, net profit was slightly higher at 1246m against 1151m in june 09 but going forward the [rofits of denawill nose dive as they need to make high provisions. on the other hand canara bank net profit in sep 09 q were 9105m up from 5553m in june 09 q. operating profit at 14191m in sep was very much higher than june 09 of 10413m . one needs to look at the trens also in various financial parameters. thus in the best case if dena is merged with canara the swap ratio will favour canara. in my view the mweger is only a rumor and it will take atlweast 2 years even if the megers in psb take place. till then the share price will be governed by the performance of banks going forward and on parameters which i have listed. hence the investors must not be carried away with the so called rumors but act on bank performance only.

25 Nov 2009 09:35

Gammon History Part 1

Gammon India

Posted by : WhatsUP
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 234.40 ( -0.26 % ), NSE: Rs. 237.45 ( 1.04 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Gammon Recommendation:
Valuation:

At current market price, stock is trading at 14.72 P/E multiple of its FY2011 estimated earnings par share. We recommend investors to buy "Gammon India" at every correction with medium to long-term investment prospective.


Source: Stockideas dot-com
...

In reply to:

Gammon History Part 1

Posted by : WhatsUP

Gammon History Part II:
Company`s R & D division developed, fabricated and put into commission the headmast and tail- mast for 700 m span cable ropeway for Alamatti Dam as also 1500 mm dia. double-wall casing for executing the pile foundations for transmission towers at Tezpur for 60 m deep piles. It also designed and manufactured a special reverse circulation-pilling rig for 1500 mm diameter piles capable for depths upto 75 m. This division also developed special techniques for installation of 1500 mm diameter piles for a Bridge across Brahmaputra River at Jogighopa. Sikkim Hydro Power Ventures Ltd, a Special Purpose Vehicle Company was incorporated for the development of 60 MW Rangit - II Hydro Electric Power Project in Sikkim is a subsidiary of Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd.

Products & services:

Company has presence in all areas of civil construction. Company has executed many multifarious civil engineering works from Cotton Godowns, Bridges, flyovers, bitumen & concrete Roads, Marine Structures, Cooling Towers, Chimneys, Tunnels, Dams etc. Company has specialization in tunnel engineering, marine structures, bulk storage structures, energy projects & high-rise structures, ground engineering & environmental protection, hydraulic works & irrigation projects, industrial structures, public utility structures, transport engineering, bridge engineering. Gammon has established strong presence of pre-stressed concrete in India. Company can claim for the largest numbers of bridges and flyovers built in India.

Company provides start-to-end solutions like the Builders and contractors, reinforced concrete specialists, engineers, architects, surveyor`s estimators and designers. Gammon is the only Indian Construction Company to have been accredited with ISO 9001 certification for all fields of Civil Engineering Works including design, stands out as gateway for Technological and Engineering excellence in Civil Engineering fields. Company has dedicated and experienced team of planners, designers and construction engineers are ever ready to contribute their expertise together and turn vision into reality. Company made the longest river bridge in the world across the mighty Ganges at Patna. The tallest bridge in Asia, the longest span cantilever bridge in India across river Jadukata, the longest road bridge in India across the open sea and first cable stayed bridge in India. As builders to the nation, Gammon has made concrete contributions by designing and constructing bridges, ports, harbours, thermal and nuclear power stations, dams, high-rise structures, chemical and fertilizer complexes environmental structures, cross country water, oil and gas pipelines.

25 Nov 2009 09:34

Heading

Marico

Posted by : panni
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 101.75 ( -0.54 % ), NSE: Rs. 101.95 ( -0.29 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Wat is the previous high of Marico ?
...

In reply to:

Heading

Posted by : NAUGHTY007

hello- the div recd on 18/11

25 Nov 2009 09:33

IFCI is old but still worth gold

IFCI

Posted by : tara23
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 49.55 ( -0.80 % ), NSE: Rs. 49.55 ( -0.70 % )
View full thread (11 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

if you are sure, short it..and see.. ...

In reply to:

IFCI is old but still worth gold

Posted by : paztiruyh

Better buy real Gold rather than artifical 1gm gold jewellery (IFCI). It is sure to touch 45 by expiry and today news in CNBC than govt not to divest public sector banks and few more NBFC. IFCI on the list. It is no doubt a value buy at 37plus levels and not at current levels of 50.

25 Nov 2009 09:33

Heading

Marico

Posted by : panni
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 101.75 ( -0.54 % ), NSE: Rs. 101.95 ( -0.29 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

How much is the dividend ?
I got 600 shares & I didnt receive any dividend ....

In reply to:

Heading

Posted by : NAUGHTY007

hello- the div recd on 18/11

25 Nov 2009 09:33

Gammon History Part 1

Gammon India

Posted by : WhatsUP
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 234.40 ( -0.26 % ), NSE: Rs. 237.45 ( 1.04 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Gammon History Part II:
Company`s R & D division developed, fabricated and put into commission the headmast and tail- mast for 700 m span cable ropeway for Alamatti Dam as also 1500 mm dia. double-wall casing for executing the pile foundations for transmission towers at Tezpur for 60 m deep piles. It also designed and manufactured a special reverse circulation-pilling rig for 1500 mm diameter piles capable for depths upto 75 m. This division also developed special techniques for installation of 1500 mm diameter piles for a Bridge across Brahmaputra River at Jogighopa. Sikkim Hydro Power Ventures Ltd, a Special Purpose Vehicle Company was incorporated for the development of 60 MW Rangit - II Hydro Electric Power Project in Sikkim is a subsidiary of Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd.

Products & services:

Company has presence in all areas of civil construction. Company has executed many multifarious civil engineering works from Cotton Godowns, Bridges, flyovers, bitumen & concrete Roads, Marine Structures, Cooling Towers, Chimneys, Tunnels, Dams etc. Company has specialization in tunnel engineering, marine structures, bulk storage structures, energy projects & high-rise structures, ground engineering & environmental protection, hydraulic works & irrigation projects, industrial structures, public utility structures, transport engineering, bridge engineering. Gammon has established strong presence of pre-stressed concrete in India. Company can claim for the largest numbers of bridges and flyovers built in India.

Company provides start-to-end solutions like the Builders and contractors, reinforced concrete specialists, engineers, architects, surveyor`s estimators and designers. Gammon is the only Indian Construction Company to have been accredited with ISO 9001 certification for all fields of Civil Engineering Works including design, stands out as gateway for Technological and Engineering excellence in Civil Engineering fields. Company has dedicated and experienced team of planners, designers and construction engineers are ever ready to contribute their expertise together and turn vision into reality. Company made the longest river bridge in the world across the mighty Ganges at Patna. The tallest bridge in Asia, the longest span cantilever bridge in India across river Jadukata, the longest road bridge in India across the open sea and first cable stayed bridge in India. As builders to the nation, Gammon has made concrete contributions by designing and constructing bridges, ports, harbours, thermal and nuclear power stations, dams, high-rise structures, chemical and fertilizer complexes environmental structures, cross country water, oil and gas pipelines.

...

In reply to:

Gammon History Part 1

Posted by : WhatsUP

Gammon History Part 1:
Gammon India was incorporated in 1922 and converted into a public Ltd. company on 31st April 1962. At the time of incorporation, the name of the Company was J. C. Gammon (Mumbai) Ltd. The first work carried out by Mr. J. C. Gammon was the construction of reinforced oncrete pile foundations for Gateway of India. The name was changed to Gammon India Ltd. In 1975, Gammon Nirma Ltd. was incorporated as a subsidiary of the company.

Another subsidiary Gammon Turnkeys Ltd. was formed. In 1977 company associated with Gammon Eastern Union Ltd., Hong Kong, which promoted Gammon Mideast Ltd. joint venture Company in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates. This joint venture company was incorporated to undertake construction and service contracts in the Middle East and elsewhere.

A new joint venture company, Heitkamp Gammon Ltd., was being established with Gammon India Ltd., and Heitkamp Rohrbau GmbH, West Germany as the principal promoter shareholder. In 1989 R&D Division of the company undertook development of energy efficient GFRP bladed fans for ID Cooling towers and PP splash grid modular packing system for ND/ID covering towers, alternative packing systems etc.

25 Nov 2009 09:32

IFCI is old but still worth gold

IFCI

Posted by : bagram
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 49.55 ( -0.80 % ), NSE: Rs. 49.55 ( -0.70 % )
View full thread (11 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

thanks for the info
this cnbc is trustwothy??...

In reply to:

IFCI is old but still worth gold

Posted by : paztiruyh

Morning in power breakfast in CNBC, it is said. What else proof you want??? Only proof now required is when IFCI will come to 37???

25 Nov 2009 09:31

Avoid reliance above 2000....

Reliance

Posted by : pss5588
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 2176.10 ( -0.88 % ), NSE: Rs. 2177.20 ( -0.81 % )
View full thread (79 messages)

Tracked by: 1 Boarder

As subasuji says remain invested for views are many and all except us are experts and therefore confusing to us. No imminent danger for atleast next 3 years as things stand. NO ONE KNOWS THE FUTURE OF ANYTHING....

In reply to:

Avoid reliance above 2000....

Posted by : shakti27

Request advise,shall we remain invested?

25 Nov 2009 09:31

Gammon History Part 1

Gammon India

Posted by : WhatsUP
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 234.40 ( -0.26 % ), NSE: Rs. 237.45 ( 1.04 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Gammon History Part 1:
Gammon India was incorporated in 1922 and converted into a public Ltd. company on 31st April 1962. At the time of incorporation, the name of the Company was J. C. Gammon (Mumbai) Ltd. The first work carried out by Mr. J. C. Gammon was the construction of reinforced oncrete pile foundations for Gateway of India. The name was changed to Gammon India Ltd. In 1975, Gammon Nirma Ltd. was incorporated as a subsidiary of the company.

Another subsidiary Gammon Turnkeys Ltd. was formed. In 1977 company associated with Gammon Eastern Union Ltd., Hong Kong, which promoted Gammon Mideast Ltd. joint venture Company in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates. This joint venture company was incorporated to undertake construction and service contracts in the Middle East and elsewhere.

A new joint venture company, Heitkamp Gammon Ltd., was being established with Gammon India Ltd., and Heitkamp Rohrbau GmbH, West Germany as the principal promoter shareholder. In 1989 R&D Division of the company undertook development of energy efficient GFRP bladed fans for ID Cooling towers and PP splash grid modular packing system for ND/ID covering towers, alternative packing systems etc.
...

25 Nov 2009 09:29

Buyback over

Bosch

Posted by : man
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 4419.20 ( -0.29 % ), NSE: Rs. 4417.00 ( -0.19 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

DEAR SRILALKAKI,

IT IS NOW MOVING IN GOOD DIRECTION AND WE CAN SEE GOOD UP SWING. I AM HOLDING THIS STOCK AND HOPE YOU HAVE ALSO KEPT INTACT IN YOUR PORTFOLIO.
WE COULD SEE MESSAGE ON THIS STOCK AFTER VERY LONG TIME AND I AM SURE IN THIS GRP ALL THOSE WHO KEPT CUSTODY OF THIS STOCK MUST BEFELING GOOD....

In reply to:

Buyback over

Posted by : srilakaki

It is not just Nano. Their other products namely CRDi and security systems have been doing well in the market. Their capex is well planned and hence when the sales of automobiles in the indian and international market goes up, Bosch will be an outstanding performer.

Cheers

25 Nov 2009 09:28

ANOTHER DOWN C I R C U I T. .

Austral Coke &

Posted by : pss5588
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 8.73 ( 3.80 % )
View full thread (82 messages)

Tracked by: 1 Boarder

Thank u bagramji and best of luck....

In reply to:

ANOTHER DOWN C I R C U I T. .

Posted by : bagram

dear pss5588
how are you
one share i have noted
GLOBUS SPIRIT
friday 20th nov i braught 491 shares at 82.95
yesterday i simply put a bid at 93 it was sold
again i have to take it back around 80
yesterday i so some operators action
TRY TO COLLECT IT AROUND 80 AND KEEP FOR 3 MONTHS
my target price is 150 rs in july 2010
i.d.f.c fund is holding 4 percentage
other corporative bodies holding 3 percent promotors holding is 60 percent
floating stock is low
definitey they will clock 15 e.p.s this year end
usually liqur companies profits will increse in the last 2 quartes
check share holding pattern and their last 2 quarters results either in nse or in rediff money

25 Nov 2009 09:28

it

Sri Ramakrishna

Posted by : tara23
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 18.65 ( 3.61 % )
View full thread (3 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

why he(udayan) should parade for this stock? did`nt get.. ...

In reply to:

it

Posted by : GOLD FINGER

The 2009 sept quarter result shows that the company earned more than 9 crores as other income and the EPS is Rs.14.


So based on this result, the share price has to atleast double. BUT IT HAS NOT DONE SO.

How the BSE accepts the quarterly report when there is no proper disclosure? How could a company report 95 percent profit from other income and yet keep silent on the source of other income.

The much maligned JAI CORP and RELIANCE INDs give detailed reports along with their quarterly financial reports.

THE PROMOTERS ARE VERY POWERFUL MEN OF COIMBATORE. THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT. WHY IS UDHAYAN KEEPING QUIET.

25 Nov 2009 09:26

IFCI is old but still worth gold

IFCI

Posted by : paztiruyh
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 49.55 ( -0.80 % ), NSE: Rs. 49.55 ( -0.70 % )
View full thread (11 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Morning in power breakfast in CNBC, it is said. What else proof you want??? Only proof now required is when IFCI will come to 37???...

In reply to:

IFCI is old but still worth gold

Posted by : bagram

is there any proof with you that gov has decided not to disinvest i f c i
what i heard that they are appointing some body to decide its real value and to submit the report

25 Nov 2009 09:26

MF and institutional holdings in Sicagen..interesting!

Sicagen India

Posted by : nadhi
Price when posted : BSE: Rs 13.20 ( -0.98 % ), NSE: Rs. 13.15 ( -2.23 % )
View full thread (9 messages)

Tracked by: 0 Boarder

Dear jashn24,

Out of the three, Kavveri telecom looks attractive in price. But telecom being the "laggard" now it may give better opportunities in the coming months. I am just thinking of it`s hey days when it was quoted around Rs300/=.

The remaining two I will have a look. It seems that they are almost at 52 week high.

Regards

Nadhi ...

In reply to:

MF and institutional holdings in Sicagen..interesting!

Posted by : jashn24


Dear KM,Nadhi,

Glad to know that you find the infos of benifit :)- will try posting more as i get more info ..
yes, as you both say, it`s very difficult to focus on many stocks, rather, always better to concentrate very well on a few stocks that one finds interesting from one`s perspective.That way, there`s much better quality that could be developed into a one`s individual holdings/interests :)-
I would surely look in to both the stocks,and post the info i get on the respective boards. especially since u both are looking at it, it must have some real meaning and worth. I know of india foils, and had been wanting to look deeper into it, but it got lost somewhere, though i did pick up a small quantity in its competitor, parekh aluminex. thanks for reminding me. A promising one, thats what i felt initially.

please keep me also in you loop.

Btw, how`s kavveri tele and natural capsules,beckons.. are you tracking them?

if there`s any other that you`d feel ok to share,or research on, pls pm me on my below id, will manintain the confidentiality as you feel so. this is one of my favourite time pass :)-

Regards,
Jashn Sarvi
jashn24(at)gmail(dot)com

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